010519 Apple M

Trump’s tariff reprieve for consumer electronics: What it means for tech investors

Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Key points:

  • Consumer electronics get a breather — for now: Trump has paused steep tariffs on consumer electronics, signaling a shift to more strategic, sector-specific protectionism.
  • Semiconductors remain in the spotlight: While exemptions offer temporary relief, Section 232-based tariffs could soon target chips and equipment more directly.
  • The winners are agile and diversified: Investors should focus on firms with resilient supply chains, U.S. manufacturing exposure, and structural tailwinds like AI infrastructure.


From ‘reciprocal’ to ‘sectoral’ tariffs

Trump’s tariff policy just took a sharp turn — again. In what some are calling a strategic reprieve, the White House has excluded major electronics categories from the steepest round of tariffs, which originally imposed a 145% levy on Chinese goods and 10% on imports from other countries.

This move signals a shift from country-specific reciprocal tariff strategy to sector-focused protectionism. While the 20% China tariff remains in place — especially targeting fentanyl-related imports — the U.S. appears to be laying the groundwork for new semiconductor-focused tariffs under Section 232, a national security clause that could make these duties more durable and harder to reverse.

Who wins (for now)?

  • Smartphone makers: Apple avoids the harshest blow, although China-made iPhones still face 20% tariffs. Samsung may also benefit as it could get excluded from the 10% global baseline tariff on South Korea.
  • Chip stocks: Nvidia, Broadcom, Super Micro, Intel, TSMC could gain from exemptions on semiconductor equipment.
  • Big Tech and other Mag 7: Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta remain in focus given their exposure to digital infrastructure and hardware.
  • PC makers & server players: Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) benefit from lower tariffs on servers and components.
  • Suppliers to US fabs: ASML (Netherlands) and Tokyo Electron (Japan) could benefit indirectly from ongoing investment in U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing.

However, the reprieve may be short-lived, and tech stocks could remain in the crosshairs. Semiconductors are no longer just another component — they’re the lifeblood of modern economies. From AI to EVs and cloud computing, chips power everything.

The administration’s delay in announcing tariffs on semiconductors might reflect awareness of their systemic importance — or, as some suspect, a strategic pause amid bond market volatility and potential market backlash.

Who loses (or still at risk)?

  • Apparel & footwear: No relief in sight. These sectors continue to face tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods.
  • Pharma: It has been announced that special sectoral tariffs on drug companies could follow — a risk for global drug supply chains.


What should investors watch?

  • Policy volatility: The U.S. Commerce Secretary has already called this reprieve temporary. That means markets could be whipsawed again if Trump reintroduces electronics duties or implements new semiconductor-specific tariffs.
  • Capex planning uncertainty: With U.S. policies swinging between unilateral tariffs and sectoral exemptions, companies may delay investment decisions. That favors diversified, agile players over those tightly tied to China.
  • Themes to consider:
    • Reshoring and U.S. manufacturing: The CHIPS Act plays into this, alongside tariffs. Domestic manufacturers and U.S. suppliers are likely to remain on the front foot.
    • Tariff-proof” supply chains: Companies with significant non-China exposure — including Vietnam, Mexico, and India — could be less vulnerable.
    • AI infrastructure buildout: The exemption on servers and PC hardware could support continued investment in AI data centers, benefiting select semiconductor and hardware plays.
 

Investment implications: Prepare for the long game

1. Watch for repricing in chip stocks

A new round of tariffs on semiconductors could weigh on companies heavily exposed to China or reliant on complex global supply chains. Investors may want to:

  • Reassess positions in firms with China-centric revenue or supply exposure.
  • Look at domestic chipmakers or those with diversified production footprints.
 

2. Favor supply chain winners and “tariff-proof” names

Companies with resilient, domestic-oriented supply chains or those with unique IP may weather this storm better than others. Think:

  • Asset-light or IP-driven chip firms like ARM or Nvidia
  • Foundries and equipment makers less dependent on exports

3. Build exposure to re-shoring and “silicon sovereignty”

With semiconductors labeled as critical infrastructure, expect continued momentum behind reshoring and “silicon sovereignty” themes:

  • U.S. Chips Act beneficiaries. Companies like TSMC, Samsung and Intel are building new US factories with support from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.
  • European firms aligned with the EU’s strategic autonomy agenda.
  • Taiwan and Japan players expanding globally and forming supply chain partnerships.


Bottom line: Don’t mistake relief for stability

Trump’s tariff policy continues to be a moving target. While the latest reprieve delivers a short-term win for electronics and AI-related players, the broader trend toward protectionist industrial policy remains firmly intact.

For investors, the message is clear:

  • Prioritize agility, resilience, and policy awareness.
  • Focus on companies with strategic positioning in AI, semiconductor sovereignty, and non-China supply chains.
  • And above all, prepare for volatility as the new normal in global tech investing.

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Outrageous Predictions

    China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Saxo partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners. 

While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.