Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: US Indices have broken important support levels confirming bearish trends on both short and medium term. Selling pressure is continuing this morning with Index futures pointing to lower opening. Selling pressure could continue for a few more days
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed Friday below the 200 SMA fast approaching the support area 4,363-4,300. If Index closes below 4,300 it can fuel a massive sell off since there is not much support before around 3,700.
On the Weekly time period S&P500 closed well below the longer term rising trend line confirming the bear trend. 4,300 area could be crucial for the performance for the rest om 1H 2022.
US500 CFD (future)
The future/ USNAS500 CFD is pointing to a much lower opening, -1.00% at the time of writing. The strong support at around 4,262 is likely to be tested this week. minor support at current levels at around 4,338
Nasdaq 100 & USNAS100 CFD (future)
Nasdaq 100 closed a few points below its strong support at 14,481. The Nasdaq future/USNAS CFD points to an open 1.50% lower trading around 14,196 at the time of writing. No support before 13,838.
Russell 2000 Small cap index is hit by heavy selling. Next strong support is around 1,945. A close below next support is around 1,750.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.