Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
CAC40 testing support area 6,421-6,500. A close below 6,421 will confirm downtrend to resume. A re-test of March is likely if that scenario plays out. RSI showing bearish sentiment indicating bear trend likely to resume.
A daily close above 6,615 will push CAC 40 to neutral.
AEX Amsterdam downtrend confirmed but do expect a day or two where buyers try to drag prices back above resistance at 718. RSI is showing bearish sentiment indicating March lows to be tested. A close below 700 will likely accelerate selling. AEX needs to close above 743 to reverse the down trend
BEL20 has outperformed most European markets with strong rebound and uptrend but that could now have come to an end. Back below 200 SMA finding some support at 100 SMA. Expect the Index to be range bound between 4,250 and 4,100 next few days. Support at 4,030. A close below and gap likely to be closed with intensified selling pressure. Above 4,254 uptrend to resume
Swiss SMI is in a short term uptrend broken above resistance at 12,411 only to open below today. RSI is bullish with no divergence which indicate SMI could move higher. However, 12,411 seems to be the Pivot for continued uptrend or the end of it. If SMI moves below the 100 and 200 SMA’s the key support at 12,069 is likely to come under pressure.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.