Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
GER40 identical picture. Testing falling trend line and 0.786 retracement. If closing above 13,218 there is upside to 13,570.
IF sliding back below 55 SMA (Dark blue) bears could get renewed energy. Below 12,541 bear trend has resumed.
Weekly DAX chart: Down trend is still intact in DAX currently testing 0.618 retracement of the mid-August to End-September down move. Strong key resistance at 13,565 is a few points above the 0.786 retracement. That level is key for medium term Bull/Bear trend. If closing above, it is a strong indication of Bear trend is over and foundation for a new uptrend.
EuroStoxx50 is hovering around its 0.786 retracement at 3,590, trying to reach 1.618 projection of the double bottom pattern at 3,625. If EuroStoxx 50 fails and slides back below 55 and 100 SMA’s and RSI drops back below 60, it could give Bears renewed energy.
Strong overhead resistance at 3,683.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.