Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
GER40 identical picture. Testing falling trend line and 0.786 retracement. If closing above 13,218 there is upside to 13,570.
IF sliding back below 55 SMA (Dark blue) bears could get renewed energy. Below 12,541 bear trend has resumed.
Weekly DAX chart: Down trend is still intact in DAX currently testing 0.618 retracement of the mid-August to End-September down move. Strong key resistance at 13,565 is a few points above the 0.786 retracement. That level is key for medium term Bull/Bear trend. If closing above, it is a strong indication of Bear trend is over and foundation for a new uptrend.
EuroStoxx50 is hovering around its 0.786 retracement at 3,590, trying to reach 1.618 projection of the double bottom pattern at 3,625. If EuroStoxx 50 fails and slides back below 55 and 100 SMA’s and RSI drops back below 60, it could give Bears renewed energy.
Strong overhead resistance at 3,683.