football stadium image football stadium image football stadium image

Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Final Update

Equities 6 minutes to read
Picture of Peter Garnry
Peter Garnry

Head of Saxo Strats

Summary:  The FIFA 2022 World Cup is coming closer to an end with the first two quarter finals set to be played tomorrow. Elo ratings and numbers overall mean less at this stage as randomness and luck will begin to play a bigger role in the outcomes. As a result, we are publishing the final set of predictions. The Netherlands is still the model's top favourite and Portugal has seen the biggest jump in win probability as Morocco beat Spain making it easier, in theory, for Portugal to advance to the semi finals.

Randomness, luck, and close calls

The FIFA 2022 World Cup starts the quarter finals tomorrow with two matches (Croatia vs Brazil at 1600 CET and Netherlands vs Argentina at 2000 CET). We are now entering the phase of the tournament in which Elo ranking means less and the peculiarities of the game begin. As a result we are publishing our final predictions of tournament. The Netherlands is still the model’s favourite and by late tomorrow night we will know whether the model’s favourite from the beginning can go all the way by beating Messi’s Argentina or the show stops. Portugal is the biggest gainer in terms of win probability as Morocco miraculously beat Spain as Portugal by far is the biggest favourite in that quarter final measured over 10,000 simulations. But remember on the actual game day anything can happen. It is football after all and luck plays a big role in outcomes in life and football.

After Netherlands and Portugal the model favours Argentina, Brazil and Croatia. France and England despite wonderful plays (the model cannot see that) are not favourites which have many of our colleagues and clients wondering what is wrong with model. If we were to adjust the model after its predictions we would probably shrink the win probabilities closer to each other reflecting how close it is from now on, but we are faithful to the model but also to commit to provide conviction. As a result, come on Netherlands!

The lessons using monte carlo simulations and adjusted Elo ratings are as follow. Our model’s lower win probability on Belgium compared to bookmakers was its biggest thing it got right where as its better than expected prospects for Denmark was its worst prediction. Its win probability prediction on Portugal which was almost twice consensus at the beginning of the tournament has also turned out to be correct. Elo ratings have mostly been reflective the true relative strength in this tournament based on the teams that have reached the quarter finals, but from now on everything can happen and numbers will mean nothing. So enjoy the remaining games everyone.

Source: Saxo


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.