Head of Saxo Strats
For a complete list of five-year price charts for all stocks in Saxo's 2018 Equity World Cup, click here.
The 2018 FIFA World Cup is powering on and so is our Saxo Equity World Cup. After 23 matches (see results below) we are now beginning to see a picture emerging. Most matches in our game have been a good reverse indicator of the winning team in the real World Cup.
The tables below show the groups in our game as of yesterday's matches. The clear trend is that emerging market countries/stocks have done the best except for one standout developed market – Denmark (represented by Novo Nordisk) – which is up 5.2% in USD terms as the Danish company yesterday announced good data on its oral diabetes drug semaglutide, showing promising results on weight reduction compared to Merck’s product Januvia.
In our introduction we highlighted Colombia (Ecopetrol) as a potential winner based on strong price momentum in the days before the tournament, but interestingly enough Ecopetrol is the worst performer since 13 June in USD terms and is down 8.3% as EM equities have been sold off broadly and are also affected by worries over oil prices in a trade war escalation scenario. Our expectation for oil prices is mildly positive over the coming two weeks. Based on current performance (“stock fitness”) Denmark looks to have good chances of go far in the tournament. We will give updates again next week.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
