Invest in the trends shaping the future

Key points:

Forget sectors. Forget countries. The future of investing is long-term trends.

Artificial intelligence reshaping industries, defence budgets soaring, cybercrime costs ballooning, healthcare breakthroughs lengthening lives, dividend growth rewarding patience, and blockchain re-wiring finance. These are the narratives shaping markets today and tomorrow.

More and more investors are realising they do not just want exposure to an index. They want exposure to a  long-term theme. They want their portfolios to reflect the world they see coming. That is the idea behind thematic investing: aligning capital with the long-term trends shaping the future, while keeping it anchored in fundamentals.

The backdrop: four forces rewriting the playbook

Four overall structural forces are reshaping economies and markets: technology, demographics, geopolitics and climate.

• Technology: AI is permeating everything from semiconductors to healthcare.
• Demographics: an ageing population drives demand for medicines, while younger generations demand digital-native services.
• Geopolitics: defence budgets are rising, cyberattacks are multiplying, and supply chains are being redrawn.
• Climate: decarbonisation and the green transition are reallocating capital across industries.

These are not quarterly noise; they are generational shifts. Each of Saxo’s investment themes is built around one or more of these structural forces: translating broad megatrends like technology, demographics, geopolitics and climate into concrete, investable opportunities.

“Investing in megatrends is about positioning capital where the world is going, not where it has been.”

Thematic investing, explained

Thematic investing is not the same as buying a sector fund. A sector ETF might give you banks; a thematic basket on “cyber security” cuts across software, hardware and services, all tied to the same driver.

Think of it as owning the storyline rather than the genre. Instead of filing your portfolio under “technology”, you pick the chapter called “AI” and hold companies from chip designers to data centres that all ride that arc.

Importantly, themes are not fads. A well-built theme has structural drivers, broad relevance, and investable companies with real revenues.

“The best themes are not about what is fashionable today, but about what will still matter in ten years.”

The last three years have shown how fast themes can go from hype to adoption. Generative AI was science fiction, then a pilot project, now a boardroom agenda. Defence spending was stagnant for decades, now NATO allies are committing two per cent of GDP as a baseline. Healthcare is shifting from treatment to prevention and personalisation.

Themes are not promises of smooth returns, but they are engines of long-term growth. The challenge for investors is separating signal from noise.

Make it yours: investing with conviction

One reason investors gravitate to themes is engagement. It is easier to stay invested when you believe in the story. If you care about data security, a cyber theme feels tangible. If you are passionate about science, healthcare innovation resonates. If you want stable income, dividend growth appeals.

This emotional connection matters. Investors are less likely to panic-sell when they have conviction in why they own something.

Portfolio fit: core and satellite

Themes work best as satellites around a diversified core. Imagine your portfolio as a solar system: a core holding of broad equities and bonds, surrounded by thematic satellites that express your convictions.

Typical investors might allocate five to 20% of their portfolio to themes, depending on risk appetite. This keeps you engaged without overexposing you to any single storyline.

“Themes should excite you, but they should never dominate your portfolio. Think spice, not the whole meal.”

One-click exposure: Saxo’s theme baskets

To make thematic investing accessible, Saxo has launched tradable theme baskets as exchange traded products(ETPs). Each basket contains a curated selection of around eight stocks directly tied to a theme, equally weighted and rebalanced periodically.

This one-click access is smart because it solves the biggest hurdle for investors: how to identify and select companies in a theme. While single stock selections may be quite complex and ETF investments tend to dilute exposure to high conviction themes, theme baskets offer a great opportunity for targeted and diversified satellite exposure. By using a basket, you gain instant diversification within the theme, avoid overexposure to a single company, and save hours of research. It lowers the barrier to entry while still giving you targeted exposure to a big trend. And because the baskets are reviewed and rebalanced, they evolve with the theme instead of leaving you stuck with yesterday’s winners.

Meet the six tradable themes

Investment professionals have identified six high conviction themes that are set to shape the future, each crafted by Saxo's strategist team, comprising approximately eight stocks, and rooted in overarching long-term trends.

• Artificial intelligence: AI is no longer confined to labs. It is driving productivity gains across industries, from chipmakers and cloud infrastructure to healthcare and consumer apps. Adoption is accelerating as companies race to embed AI in their business models.
• Defence: geopolitics has returned to the centre of markets. Rising military budgets, rearmament programmes and new technologies in aerospace and security are creating long-term demand for defence contractors and suppliers.
• Cyber security: with digital infrastructure now critical to everything from banking to healthcare, the cost of cybercrime is surging. Companies and governments alike are prioritising spending on protection, making this a structural growth market.
• Healthcare innovation: breakthroughs in genomics, personalised medicine and biotechnology are transforming how diseases are treated. An ageing population adds to the momentum, fuelling demand for better therapies and new technologies.
• Dividend growth: investors searching for resilience and income are drawn to companies with a proven record of raising payouts year after year. These firms tend to be financially strong, with stable earnings and a focus on rewarding shareholders.
• Crypto and blockchain: blockchain technology is beginning to reshape financial infrastructure and digital assets. Despite volatility and regulatory risks, its potential to transform payments, settlement and decentralised finance makes it a theme too big to ignore.

Risk radar: what to watch out for

Themes are powerful, but they come with risks:

• Concentration: some baskets are narrow, so do not bet everything on one theme.
• Hype cycles: even strong themes can move through phases of excitement and disappointment before settling into steady adoption. Prices often surge ahead of fundamentals and then correct, which can test investors’ patience.
• Valuations: thematic stocks often trade at high multiples. If growth slows, prices can reset sharply.
• Liquidity and regulation: themes like crypto or biotech are exposed to sudden shocks.

The antidote: sizing, discipline, and regular review.

Own a piece of the future

Thematic investing is not about predicting the next quarter’s GDP print. It is about expressing a view on how the world is changing and owning a slice of that change.

“In the end, you are not just investing in companies. You are investing in the future you believe in.”

For investors, that combination of conviction, diversification and accessibility may be the most powerful story of all.