A technical update on the S&P 500 A technical update on the S&P 500 A technical update on the S&P 500

A technical update on the S&P 500

Equities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  A technical look at the S&P 500 index charts as well as the Futures market heading into today's New York bell.

Short-term and intraday

We see an interesting symmetrical triangle pattern on the Future/CFD US500.I intraday (one-hour) chart, so watch this for a potential breakout. 

If it breaks to the upside, it could place 2,793 in view, while a downside break could clear a path to a new test of 2,700.

US500.I (hourly)
Source: Saxo Bank
Medium-term and the bigger picture

After Wednesday and Thursday’s sell-off , the S&P 500 rebounded Friday to close just above its 200-day moving average (see the daily chart further below). The index came very close to testing the important level around 2,700. A close below this area can fuel another sell-off that would most likely will take the index down another 200 points

As you can see from the weekly chart S&P 500  below, we have penetrated the medium-term rising trendline but managed to close the week above that point. A close below 2,700 will not only break that support but would also reverse the medium-term trend.

In our view, the 2,700 level could very well come under pressure; MACD has turned bearish but RSI remains bullish as it hasn’t broken below the 40 threshold. On the other hand, it has not yet “unwound” its massive divergence. Divergence can be “traded out” by a new high reading on the RSI or a by close below 40. Please note: divergences can go on for a long time!
S&P 500 (weekly)
Source: Saxo Bank

Short term

Daily chart: Bearish RSI divergence has been unwound by a close below 40; now we could potentially wait for bullish divergence. However, often we see a rebound and turn in the stock market without bullish divergence since the market is per its nature biased long. Bearish divergences will always result in a correction/downturn, which we also witnessed last week. 

S&P 500 (daily)
Source: Saxo Bank
Today's outlook

If we get a close above 2,784 today, further upside could be seen in the next few days.

S&P 500 (hourly)
Source: Saxo Bank


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.