20fedM

Crypto Weekly: Banning - not banning

Mads Eberhardt 400x400
Mads Eberhardt

Cryptocurrency Analyst

Summary:  Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US has no plans to ban cryptocurrencies, as we saw two weeks ago in China. Visa has initiated a research project to facilitate transactions between numerous stablecoins and central bank digital currencies.


US is taking a lighter stance than China

Two weeks ago, China announced a full-blown crackdown on cryptocurrencies, de facto making them illegal in the country. The crackdown was the most severe carried out on cryptocurrencies to date from the Chinese government, forcing countless crypto service providers including exchanges, brokers, and miners to exit China. Market participants likely expected the severe crackdown as a consequence of the Chinese mining crackdown in May 2021, which may be why the market only took a modest hit after the recent ban.

The US, on the other hand, had a more positive statement on cryptocurrencies last week as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the US has no plans to ban cryptocurrencies. Alongside China, the US counts as the largest market for cryptocurrencies. On top of this, most innovation in crypto particularly within decentralized finance is taken place in the US, virtually meaning the country is crucial for crypto going forward. Jerome Powell stated however that cryptocurrencies need additional regulation, which is expected in one way or another, with particularly the US infrastructure bill to potentially have an immense impact on regulation in the US.

Visa is doubling down on cryptocurrencies and CBDCs

For the past year, Visa has been somewhat explicit about its involvement and plans within cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies, known as CBDCs. Visa doubled down on these plans last week by publishing a paper describing a project called “universal payments channel". The intention is to facilitate transactions between numerous stablecoins and central bank digital currencies. In essence, this enables users to pay in a CBDC while being deducted the amount from a stablecoin they hold or vice versa. This is essentially comparable to using a credit or debit card abroad while paying in the fiat currency belonging to one’s home country. The latter is managed by legacy bank systems, while the intention behind the “universal payments channel" is to achieve it decentralized through smart contracts. To accomplish this, Visa has deployed a smart contract to an Ethereum testnet. This project is notably interesting as it will allow CBDCs, cryptocurrencies, and later on decentralized protocols to interact with each other contributing to an increasing synergy across projects. Though, Visa pointed out that the project is still in an early stage, and it highly depends on the cooperativeness of central banks.

Stablecoins and CBDCs in spotlight

Speaking of stablecoins and CBDCs, there is an increasing focus on these matters. First, as the stablecoin supply has grown from $29bn to $126bn year to date, regulators are becoming increasingly aware of this topic. For instance, the Biden administration is allegedly considering regulating stablecoin issuers as banks to decrease the risk of them fueling financial instability. At the same time, between 80 to 100 central banks across the world are exploring CBDCs with US Federal Reserve to launch a CBDC review as early as this week containing public comments. In a fairly positive statement last week, the International Monetary Fund expressed that CBDCs are stable: “CBDCs are designed to be very stable, stable in value, low transaction cost and backed by the central bank for added consumer confidence – very different from bitcoins which fluctuate in value and are more like an investment asset”, adding to IMFs warning of global risks from an unregulated cryptocurrency market.
04_MAEB_BTC
Source: Saxo Group
04_MAEB_ETH
Source: Saxo Group

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Outrageous Predictions

    China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.