What the charts say about oil's dizzying climb

WTI has formed what looks like a rising wedge formation currently testing the lower rising trend line with identical technical indicators ie. RSI divergence and close to breaking a rising trend line. No top and reversal candle is in place but the uptrend does seem a bit stretched in the short term. 

A break of the  lower trend line should take WTI down to around $67.50/b level. However, the overall uptrend is still intact as long as WTI doesn't close below its May low at $66.85/b. 


 Chart source: Saxo Bank

Bigger picture – Brent

Brent crude oil has recovered significantly since its trough in 2016 just below around $27/b for WTI to now in the high 70s but there could very well be more upside after an expected correction as mentioned above. A long-term falling trend line going back to the all-time high in 2008 with some resistance around $88.50/b in Brent could test the $90/b level, maybe even trying to push for $100/b if it succeeds in pushing above the long-term falling trend line.

Chart  source: Saxo Bank

Bigger picture – WTI

WTI oil has also (of course) recovered significantly since its trough in 2016 at $26/b to now trading in the 70s. However, after an expected correction as previously mentioned there could very well be more upside. The long-term falling trend line going back to the all- time high in 2008 with some resistance around $75-76/b. WTI could test the $80/b with in next few weeks ie. before the driving season kicks in, which is historically a bit weak for oil ie. oil should show strength until end-June then weaken.


 
Chart source: Saxo Bank

From the below graphs (courtesy of Updata Analytics which we can soon offer to Saxo clients) you can see 20 years of the weighted average of annual seasonality for the past 10 years. WTI usually tops out around June. 

Seasonal chart. Source: Updata Analytics