Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold slowly approaching 2,070 but could make new all-time highs in 2024.
Silver gathering strength to test key resistance around 26. Could Silver break the resistance and reach 30 in 2024?
Platinum crawling higher towards 1K short-term, but could move to 1,150 in first half of 2024
Palladium bouncing from decade lows. Indicating bullish trend in 2024. Could reach 1,600
Copper could break the strong key 400 level Q1 2024
Gold XAUUSD is eyeing the 0.618 retracement and all-time high close at around 2,072.
The RSI indicator is showing positive sentiment and no divergence. A new daily close above 60 will further underline the bullish scenario for Gold.
A daily close above 2,072 is likely to push Gold to new highs.
Medium-term Gold is also in an uptrend. A close above 2,072 could push the precious metal to the 1.382 projection at 2,193 possibly to the 1.618 projection at 2,231
A close below 1,973 will demolish the bullish picture and reverse the uptrend
Silver XAGUSD is likely to be testing the 0.618 retracement at 24.63 shortly. A close around that level is likely to push the daily RSI to close above 60 threshold thus in positive sentiment.
If that scenario plays out Silver is likely to push higher towards 26.
Medium-term the price area 25.85-26.50 is a strong resistance area. An area that is likely to be test in Q1 2024. A close above 26.50 could fuel a rally towards previous peaks around 30
Weekly RSI is showing positive sentiment but has struggled for momentum . another weekly close above 60 is likely to initiate the next rally higher.
A close below 22.50 will demolish the bullish scenario Platinum XPTUSD following the break of key resistance at around 952.30 Platinum is slowly crawling higher towards the 1K level. RSI above 60 threshold is supporting the bullish trend.
The 55 DMA is close to be breaking above the 100 DMA. They are both rising thus forming a Gold Cross further underlining the bullish picture.
Medium-term a weekly close above 988 will confirm bullish trend. A close above 988 will most likely establish RSI above 60 thereby showing positive sentiment with Platinum potential to around 1,150
To reverse the bullish picture a close below 889 is needed
Palladium is approaching its 200 DMA, eyeing 1,302 strong resistance level which could be reached within a week or two. RSI positive sentiment is supporting the short-term bullish picture
Medium-term Last week Palladium broke bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern and above the shorter upper falling trend line (blue falling line). The break out occurred after RSI was been showing divergence strongly indicating downtrend exhaustion.
A bullish move to strong resistance at around 1,346 seems likely. The weekly 55 DMA will add to the resistance
A close above could pave the way to 1,600-1,650 area.
Copper is testing early December peak at around 939.30 attempting to move to key strong resistance around 401.60 but seems to be struggling.
Medium-term Copper is struggling to break above the declining 100 weekly Moving Average despite getting support from the 55 and 200 weekly Moving Averages both rising.
However, Copper seems to be closing the week above the Cloud and if RSI can do a weekly close above 60 the sentiment has been confirmed to being positive also on medium-term.
Next couple of weeks could be decisive for this scenario to play out.
A close above 401.60 could fuel a rally higher in the new year towards 450 area with strong resistance around 419.50
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.