background image

Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction

Commodities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent and WTI Crude oil are range bound. Look out for break out direction
Dutch Gas seems to have found solid ground and is set for rebound
Henry Hub struggling to get upside traction



Despite breaking above the upper trend line in the falling channel Brent Crude Oil seems range bound between 92 and 98.75. Brent doesn’t seem to get traction. A daily close outside of these bands are needed for direction. However, a close below 92 there is support at 88.75. A close below that level the September low at around 83.65 is likely to be tested.
If Brent Crude closes above 98.75 there is upside potential to around 105.50 short-term.
Medium-term the trend is still down. RSI showing negative sentiment and if RSI closes back below 40 new lows in Brent could be seen.


Brent d 15nov
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
Brent w 15nov

WTI Oil has broken sideways out of its falling channel like pattern and cannot really seem to get upside traction. QTI seems to be stuck between 82 and 93.65. A close outside either band is needed for direction.
A close below 82 WTI is likely to drop to around 75-74 i.e., taking out September lows.
A close above 93.65 strong resistance at 97 is being tested. 200 weekly SMA will provide resistance.
But if the bullish break out scenario is unfolding there could be room up to the 0.618 retracement at around 105.56

WTI d 15nov

Dutch TTF Gas seems to have found solid ground after having traded sideways following break out from the Falling Wedge like pattern a couple of weeks ago. During the sideways move Dutch gas has formed a Double bottom like pattern that if Dutch gas closes above 147 will have potential to 1.618 -1.764 projection of the Double bottom pattern and 0.382 retracement of the Peak to trough of the wedge downtrend i.e., a price around €180-188.
This possible bullish scenario will be demolished if Dutch Gas slides back to close below 92.40.

Dutch gas d 15nov

Henry Hub Gas is struggling to get the rebound moving. In a single day’s spike Henry Hub was rejected at the 55 daily SMA around $7.20 and now seems without clear direction. A close above 7.20 is needed for buyers to believe in a new uptrend
If Henry Hub slides back to close below 58.54 October lows around 4.75 is likely to be tested.

 

Henry Hub d 15nov

Carbon Emission seems to have found support after a correction. Bouncing from around 70 the uptrend is likely to resume. RSI is showing positive sentiment and the uptrend resuming will be confirmed if RSI closes above 60. An uptrend that could take Emissions above October peak at 82.58
If sellers regain control and pushed Emission below 70 it could drop to support around 66.50

Emission d 15nov

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.