Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction

Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction

Commodities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent and WTI Crude oil are range bound. Look out for break out direction
Dutch Gas seems to have found solid ground and is set for rebound
Henry Hub struggling to get upside traction



Despite breaking above the upper trend line in the falling channel Brent Crude Oil seems range bound between 92 and 98.75. Brent doesn’t seem to get traction. A daily close outside of these bands are needed for direction. However, a close below 92 there is support at 88.75. A close below that level the September low at around 83.65 is likely to be tested.
If Brent Crude closes above 98.75 there is upside potential to around 105.50 short-term.
Medium-term the trend is still down. RSI showing negative sentiment and if RSI closes back below 40 new lows in Brent could be seen.


Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

WTI Oil has broken sideways out of its falling channel like pattern and cannot really seem to get upside traction. QTI seems to be stuck between 82 and 93.65. A close outside either band is needed for direction.
A close below 82 WTI is likely to drop to around 75-74 i.e., taking out September lows.
A close above 93.65 strong resistance at 97 is being tested. 200 weekly SMA will provide resistance.
But if the bullish break out scenario is unfolding there could be room up to the 0.618 retracement at around 105.56

Dutch TTF Gas seems to have found solid ground after having traded sideways following break out from the Falling Wedge like pattern a couple of weeks ago. During the sideways move Dutch gas has formed a Double bottom like pattern that if Dutch gas closes above 147 will have potential to 1.618 -1.764 projection of the Double bottom pattern and 0.382 retracement of the Peak to trough of the wedge downtrend i.e., a price around €180-188.
This possible bullish scenario will be demolished if Dutch Gas slides back to close below 92.40.

Henry Hub Gas is struggling to get the rebound moving. In a single day’s spike Henry Hub was rejected at the 55 daily SMA around $7.20 and now seems without clear direction. A close above 7.20 is needed for buyers to believe in a new uptrend
If Henry Hub slides back to close below 58.54 October lows around 4.75 is likely to be tested.

 

Carbon Emission seems to have found support after a correction. Bouncing from around 70 the uptrend is likely to resume. RSI is showing positive sentiment and the uptrend resuming will be confirmed if RSI closes above 60. An uptrend that could take Emissions above October peak at 82.58
If sellers regain control and pushed Emission below 70 it could drop to support around 66.50

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.