Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - Oil range bound. Gas building solid ground. Emission trying to get upside traction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent and WTI Crude oil are range bound. Look out for break out direction
Dutch Gas seems to have found solid ground and is set for rebound
Henry Hub struggling to get upside traction
Despite breaking above the upper trend line in the falling channel Brent Crude Oil seems range bound between 92 and 98.75. Brent doesn’t seem to get traction. A daily close outside of these bands are needed for direction. However, a close below 92 there is support at 88.75. A close below that level the September low at around 83.65 is likely to be tested.
If Brent Crude closes above 98.75 there is upside potential to around 105.50 short-term.
Medium-term the trend is still down. RSI showing negative sentiment and if RSI closes back below 40 new lows in Brent could be seen.
WTI Oil has broken sideways out of its falling channel like pattern and cannot really seem to get upside traction. QTI seems to be stuck between 82 and 93.65. A close outside either band is needed for direction.
A close below 82 WTI is likely to drop to around 75-74 i.e., taking out September lows.
A close above 93.65 strong resistance at 97 is being tested. 200 weekly SMA will provide resistance.
But if the bullish break out scenario is unfolding there could be room up to the 0.618 retracement at around 105.56
Dutch TTF Gas seems to have found solid ground after having traded sideways following break out from the Falling Wedge like pattern a couple of weeks ago. During the sideways move Dutch gas has formed a Double bottom like pattern that if Dutch gas closes above 147 will have potential to 1.618 -1.764 projection of the Double bottom pattern and 0.382 retracement of the Peak to trough of the wedge downtrend i.e., a price around €180-188.
This possible bullish scenario will be demolished if Dutch Gas slides back to close below 92.40.
Henry Hub Gas is struggling to get the rebound moving. In a single day’s spike Henry Hub was rejected at the 55 daily SMA around $7.20 and now seems without clear direction. A close above 7.20 is needed for buyers to believe in a new uptrend
If Henry Hub slides back to close below 58.54 October lows around 4.75 is likely to be tested.
Carbon Emission seems to have found support after a correction. Bouncing from around 70 the uptrend is likely to resume. RSI is showing positive sentiment and the uptrend resuming will be confirmed if RSI closes above 60. An uptrend that could take Emissions above October peak at 82.58
If sellers regain control and pushed Emission below 70 it could drop to support around 66.50
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