Energy: The combined net long in crude oil reached a six-week high at 677k, with the increase being led by WTI while speculators kept an almost unchanged position in Brent, primarily due to an increased amount of naked short selling. The biggest change was seen in gas oil where the net long came close to a one-year high.
Latest: Crude oil futures trade lower for a second day with the uneven demand recovery creating a somewhat challenging outlook. In India, April gasoline demand fell to the lowest level since August and increased curbs on mobility may trigger further declines into May. This at a time when higher fuel consumption is being recorded in the U.S., China and the U.K. and OPEC+ during the next three months begins to add barrels back into the market. The outlook is further being clouded by uncertainty about U.S. production growth and Iran nuclear negotiations where a deal could trigger rising production. For now, Brent crude oil trades within an ascending channel, currently between $64 and $69.
Metals: A relatively quiet week in precious metals with gold’s failure to build on the recent break above $1765 attracting fresh short selling resulting in the bulk of the 6k reduction in the net long being driven by new short positions. Silver length increased by 8% and platinum by 25% on tailwinds from surging industrial metals. The 6.3% rally in HG copper helped attract new longs with the net rising by 23% to 55.5k lots, still well below the December peak at 91.5k lots and the 2017 record at 125k lots.
Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) continue to frustrate bulls and bears alike given their inability to break current ranges. Both trading higher today after surviving another downside attempt on Friday when the dollar suddenly jumped. US Treasury yields continue to trade range bound with rising breakeven (inflation expectations) being offset by lower real yields. Speculators cut length in COMEX futures last week while ETF holdings remain stuck near a one-year low. Current range in gold being $1755 to $1800.