Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
EM weakness posing risk to oil demand
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
The global rout in emerging market currencies continues apace with the USDTRY again attacking its all-time highs first reached overnight in a low-liquidity Asian session.
The Turkish lira is not the only EM currency showing notable weakness today, however, with the ZAR already having flash-crashed to over 15.50 versus USD overnight and the Chinese yuan sitting just shy of the crucial 7.00 USDCNY level as well.
These developments have seen the MSCI EM currency index fall to a one-year low and a continued decline will begin to pose a major challenge to global oil demand. A barrel of crude priced in TRY has now almost doubled since the beginning of the year while other countries increasingly also feel the heat despite the recent decline in the spot price of crude oil from its 3-1/2-year high.
For now the price of Brent crude oil continues to hover above key support with the expected slump in supply from Iran once US sanctions kick in being offset by the aforementioned risk to demand from trade wars, dollar strength, and EM weakness.
Funds were sellers of crude oil again last week with the 27,000-lot reduction in the combined Brent and WTI taking the net-long down to 732,000 lots, the lowest since October. Traders, however, remain unprepared for a continued drop with the combined gross-short in Brent and WTI at just 71,000 lots being close to the lowest seen during the past five years.
Brent crude oil has settled into a relative tight range between $71 and $75/barrel. Continued focus on Turkey and EM contagion raises the short term risk of further weakness, something the market is currently unprepared for.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...