Crude’s month-long slide halted by fresh Mideast worries

Key points

• The energy sector led by natural gas is heading for its biggest monthly decline since May 2023

• China demand worries, speculative selling and stock market weakness seen as key drivers

• Brent back above USD 80 potentially setting the stage for a rebound

• Focus on FOMC and OPEC+ meetings as well as EIA's weekly crude and fuel stock report

The energy sector is heading for its biggest monthly loss since May 2023, with headlines this past month being dominated by the poor outlook for Chinese demand as economic weakness persists in the world’s top importer of crude oil. In addition, the recent loss of risk appetite across key stock market sectors has also led to some long liquidation from momentum-focused hedge funds. Today, however, Brent crude trades back above USD 80 in response to renewed worries about stability in the Middle East, after Hamas said Israel had killed its political leader, who was on a visit to Iran. Together with rumblings between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the market is once again forced to focus on the unlikely risk of the month-long conflict spilling over to other parts of the Middle East.

Overall, however, both WTI and Brent crude remain stuck, having traded sideways for the past two years within some well-established and still wide ranges, which in the case of Brent is currently between USD 75 and USD 95 (blue lines) and within that range a narrowing one between USD 78 and USD 87 (red lines). It has been argued throughout the latest stage of the recent correction that the move had more to do with long liquidation from hedge funds and technical selling from others, than an actual deterioration in the fundamental outlook, and we tend to agree with this observation, potentially setting the stage for a rebound in the coming weeks.