Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields indicated downtrend but the future is not agreeing. Higher yields in the cards Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields indicated downtrend but the future is not agreeing. Higher yields in the cards Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields indicated downtrend but the future is not agreeing. Higher yields in the cards

Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields indicated downtrend but the future is not agreeing. Higher yields in the cards

Bonds 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US 10-year Treasury Yields indicated reversal of uptrend last week after closing below 4.50, but the future didn’t agree and has now resumed downtrend. Yields could move to 4.80

US 10-year Treasury yields did close below 4.50 last week and below the lower rising trendline indicating a possible downtrend. However, the RSI didn’t close below 40 threshold i.e., not confirming a downtrend.
Wit the bounce back above the rising trendline and above the 55 DMA yields could be resuming uptrend.

Currently testing the 0.382 retracement a close above could lead to further upside to the 0.618 retracement at around 4.80.
The RSI is testing its falling trendline and a close above will indicate yields are likely to rise to 4.80 level.

A close above 4.80 would be an indication of previous peak at 4.01 is likely to be tested.

A close below last week’s low at 4.47 will establish a downtrend. A close below 4.47 will also most likely push the RSI below 40 thus confirming the bearish scenario
us10yy d 1311
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

US 10-year Treasury future is from a technical point of view the most interesting and the instrument that is expressing the real interest the best, simply because it expresses actual trading. The Yield chart is merely “just” a calculation or derivative of the underlying instrument i.e., the future.

The future was rejected at the upper falling trendline and resistance at around 108 27/32, and the Cloud (shaded area)
Three times the future has failed to close above 108 16/32 and with the bearish candle 9th November the sellers have taken back control.

RSI has twice been rejected at the 60 threshold i.e., still showing negative sentiment and is currently testing its rising trendline. A daily close below is likely to send RSI back below the 40 threshold which would strongly indicate the US 10-year Treasury future to dropping towards October lows around 105 10/32.
Key support at the 0.618 retracement at around 106 20/32
us10yfut d 1311


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.