Discretionary Trading Q4 2020 commentary

SaxoSelect Commentaries
Saxo Bank

Instruments tradedFX spot and CFDs
Asset classesFX, equity indices, commodities, government bonds
Investment styleDiscretionary (non-systematic), volatility, opportunistic 
Quarterly return net of all fees*13.23%
Annualised return volatility (since inception)
36%
Average trades per week (since inception)
14

Market overview

The fourth quarter started with the continuation of correction in equities although not as sharp as in September. The quarter was punctuated by rallies in expectation of another fiscal stimulus, but downside forces prevailed till the US elections. The two main factors behind the fall were: the realization of a second wave of Covid 19 epidemic coupled with subsequent lockdowns in Europe and the expectation of a Democratic sweep and gain of all levers of executive and legislative power in the US. 

A Democratic government could lead to higher capital gains taxes in 2021 and market was expecting a sell off of profitable shares in 2020 to realize profit in lower tax regime. In reality, although Democrats eventually took control of US Senate in January, the anticipated tax minded sell off didn’t occur. Instead, we witnessed powerful rally in equities. The move was supercharged by the approval of Covid 19 vaccines that spurred rotation into cyclical, value sectors of the market. Another boost to the market was the next round of fiscal stimulus agreed in December. 

Why is the US fiscal stimulus is so important to the market? it is expected that a portion of the $900bn will, similar to what happened with the March stimulus, end up in capital markets. Thanks to fiscal stimulus, involuntary savings are rising, people are restricted to their homes because of the Covid 19 epidemic and can't spend it in the real economy. Capital markets are markets for savings, so they are temporarily inflated, leading to jarring difference of performance between financial markets and the real economy.  

This ultra-easy policy mix led to continuing slide in the USD and despite Fed support, to a mild fall in bonds in expectation of bigger fiscal deficits and rising inflation expectations. Commodities were also rising although precious metals complex was suffering, first from vaccine risk positive development and probably from increasing competition from Bitcoin that is becoming the gold of the new generation and digital era.

Strategy performance (net of fees*)

Oct
8.01%
Nov
3.69%
Dec1.09%**
2020
73.3%
Since launch of partnership with Saxo Bank (February 2015)
237.9%

*Performance net of all fees represents the performance after all costs including transaction costs, product costs, the 0.5% annual service fee and the 20% performance fee on your profits above the high water mark. The performance fee presented in this documents assumes the investor has been invested since inception. Therefore, your performance fee is likely to differ, as you will only be charged we you make profit on your investment, above the high water mark.

**The estimated performance fee due for the quarter is deducted from December performance number, meaning the month’s performance would be greater without this performance fee incurred. In practice, your performance fee is deducted from your account in the first few days of the new quarter.

Generally, the strategy performance during Q4 was not due to big positive and negative trades but to a steady addition of value through positive execution during market fluctuations.

In hindsight, the impact of the vaccine discovery on cyclical risk assets should have been factored in more. Although the vaccine was expected since May, it nonetheless had a big impact after it was announced. Current market behavior appears to be driven by social, cultural phenomena, whereby trends of growing social acceptance are much longer and you don't have to be that nimble and contrarian as in the past.

Best-performing positions

  • Gold (+3.5%). Both long and short positions based on technical analysis and position developments. Trading was tactical and opportunistic.
  • GBP/USD (+3.2%). The strategy manager followed Brexit negotiations during the quarter and for the last 2 years. The idea was to trade the changing probability of a deal through the British pound as this market had clearly distilled reactions on this development. 
  • 30Y UST bonds (+2.8%). Rotation into long and short positions as the US election situation evolved. Long when the prospect of a Republican win was higher and then short as things reversed and a Democratic win was more likely. The idea is that a Democratic sweep could translate into gigantic fiscal deficits, more debt issuance and rising yields. 

Other notable profitable trades included: long Russell 2000 and Copper positions on a possibility of a fiscal stimulus deal. Short NAS 100 and SP 500 into elections and renewed lockdowns. 

Worst-performing positions

  • Russell 2000 (-1.8%). Short position following vaccine news on the expectation of a profit taking correction after unusually big rise. This ended up not happening and contributed negatively to performance.
  • EUR/PLN (-1.5%). Long position based on negotiations of a new EU Budget and Recovery Fund. Conflict around conditionality led the strategy manager to believe that Poland would be excluded from the Recovery Fund which would potentially lead to a big fall of its currency. This ended up not happening as the negotiations were resolved without a big market impact.
  • USD/JPY (-1%). This was part of a group of trades that rode weakening USD trend but this pair got caught up in the vaccine announcement as it briefly reacted more to changing risk environment than weakening USD trend and had to be closed at a loss.

Outlook 

A look back of the strategy performance during the last 6 years (2014 to 2020) shows a pattern of a very good year followed by a bad year. A further look back (2011 to 2014) shows a different pattern with only steady positive performances. The strategy manager’s goal is to revert to the earlier pattern and he believes that the combination of a vast inflow of new money in the markets and huge economic uncertainty will lead to volatile periods that can be exploited by this strategy. In Q1 2021, the impact of another gigantic fiscal stimulus in USA on the markets will be closely followed, as well as the developing speculative froth in equity markets.

The general outlook is that markets will be reasonably generous in 2021.  

Latest Market Insights


Disclaimer

Any information found in this document, including performance information and statistics are subject to change. You can find the latest updated pricing information on the description page for each available portfolio. In providing this material Saxo Bank has not taken into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives, special investment goals, financial situation, and specific needs and demands and nothing herein is intended as a recommendation for any recipient to invest or divest in a particular manner and Saxo Bank assumes no liability for any recipient sustaining a loss from trading in accordance with a perceived recommendation. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses, and all capital is at risk. In particular investments in leveraged products, such as but not limited to foreign exchange, derivatives and commodities can be very speculative and profits and losses may fluctuate both violently and rapidly. Speculative trading is not suitable for all investors and all recipients should carefully consider their financial situation and consult financial advisors in order to understand the risks involved and ensure the suitability of their situation prior to making any investment, divestment or entering into any transaction. Any mentioning herein, if any, of any risk may not be, and should not be considered to be, neither a comprehensive disclosure of risks nor a comprehensive description of such risks. Any expression of opinion may not reflect the opinion of Saxo Bank and all expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice (neither prior nor subsequent).

Saxo Bank A/S (hovedkontor)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
Hellerup
Danmark

Kontakt Saxo

Velg region

Norge
Norge

Kjenn risikoen
All handel innebærer risiko. Les mer. Derfor har vi utarbeidet en serie med nøkkelinformasjonsdokumenter (Key Information Document – KID) som forklarer hva slags risiko og gevinst som er knyttet til de enkelte produktene. Andre nøkkelinformasjonsdokumenter finner du på handelsplattformen vår. Les mer

Saxo Bank A/S er inkorporert i Danmark som en lisensiert bank (lisensnr. 1149) og er regulert av det danske Finanstilsynet, Århusgade 110, 2100, København Ø, Danmark.

Du kan se flere detaljer om Finanstilsynet og lisensen til Saxo Bank A/S på www.finanstilsynet.dk. Som medlem av EU har Danmark inkorporert EU-direktivene for bank og investering i de danske lovene.