COT: Grains in demand as oil and gold are sold

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy
Ole Hansen joined Saxo Bank in 2008 and has been Head of Commodity Strategy since 2010. He focuses on delivering strategies and analyses of the global commodity markets defined by fundamentals, market sentiment and technical developments.

Hedge funds reduced bullish commodities bets for a second week. The modest 2% or 46k lots reduction disguised a rotation out of energy (crude oil) and metals (all) and into agriculture, not least the three major crops of soy, corn and wheat.

COT 07 May 2018

Both WTI and Brent saw long liquidation despite the ongoing support from geopolitical worries related to Trump’s May 12 decision on Iran. Some traders opted to cut longs given the potential binary outcome and the risk premium already built into the current price.

Focus this week: Crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium continues to build with traders gearing up for a worst-case scenario ahead of Trump’s Iran move. Stepping away from the 2015 nuclear deal risks raising Middle East tensions while curbing production from Opec’s third biggest producer. 

COT 07 May 2018

The stronger dollar and pre-FOMC jitters took its toll on metals, both precious and industrials. Gold’s net-long was cut by 55% to just 52k lots, the lowest since last July, while silver traders flipped their silver long straight back to a net-short. Aggressive selling was also seen in platinum while three weeks of copper buying came to halt.

Focus this week: Geopolitics with Iran sanctions and troubled Chinese trade talk providing some underlying support against the stronger dollar.  Gold has been putting up a fight against the stronger dollar with XAUEUR trading at a four-month high. Also worth some attention is the potential impact on US bond yields during and following a bumper $73 billion auction of 3-, 10- and 30-year bonds. 

COT 07 May 2018

Adverse weather conditions from South and North America to Europe continue to raise the risk of a potential troubled growing season. With this mind, funds have returned to grains and the soybeans complex and are currently holding a combined net-long in the three major crops of 335,000 lots, a seasonal four-year high.  

Focus this week: With grain prices having climbed to the highest since last August, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, due Thursday, may offer clues to how solid the foundation currently is. The US Department of Agriculture’s first outlook for the next season is expected to show a price supportive decline in global inventories for corn and wheat. 

COT 07 May 2018

Non-stop buying of cocoa extended into a 15th week while the net-long at 57k still remains below the 2013 record of 84k lots. Aggressive short covering supported Arabica Coffee for a second week as the short-term technical outlook continued to improve.

COT 07 May 2018

You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)