S&P 500

2,750 proves a step too far for the S&P 500

KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Despite a strong start, the benchmark S&P 500 equities index sold off heavily Wednesday, with sellers taking control in the final hours of New York trading to push the index down to 2,701.33.

This represents a fundamental rebuff from the key 2,750 resistance level, and the picture is now overall bearish.

Investors in the S&P 500 should expect equities to sell off further; we see some support at 2,643 with more significant support not seen until around 2,565.

S&P 500:

S&P 500 index

In the Nasdaq 100, prices flirted with the 6,840 resistance level for the better part of Wednesday’s trading session, managing to briefly break above this point only to be hammered down by sellers at the day's end.  

Wednesday was the third day on which straight buyers proved unable to push the index's closing price past resistance.

This shows how weak buyers are in the Nasdaq 100, and we expect to see more selling pressure today. A beak below 6,740 could fuel a selloff down to support around 6,600 — roughly around the 55-day simple moving average and the 0.382 retracement.

The 30-minute chart below shows the struggle facing bulls as well as the support around 6,740.

Nasdaq 100 (daily and 30-minute charts):

S&P 500 index
Nasdaq 100

The German Dax index, meanwhile, is struggling to keep the rebound alive. Thus far, it has not even managed to test the 0.382 retracement whereas the US indices have reached their 0.618 retracements and higher.

The rebound in European shares has been pallid compared to that seen on Wall Street.

The Dax is also still trading below its 200-day moving average; all US Indices are trading above theirs. A new selloff could potentially represent a fifth wave down (according to Elliott Wave theory), and could break the 12,000 line.

Dax (daily):

Dax index

Looking at the intraday (one-hour) Dax chart, we see that a triangle-like pattern was formed with prices breaking out bearish and currently testing the lower rising trendline from below.

Keep an eye out for a potential rejection here, as this could fuel a selloff.

The Dax needs a close above 12,500 to reverse the bearish picture.

Dax (one-hour):

Dax index

All charts courtesy SaxoTraderGO.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.