1106cornM

Grain markets pressured by harvest and rising stocks

Matières premières
Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key takeaways

  • USDA's Quarterly Stocks report showed higher-than-expected corn supplies, pressuring futures to fresh lows, while wheat also slid to a contract low.
  • Soybeans remain under pressure from absent Chinese demand, though soybean oil is supported by strong biofuel and food sector demand
  • Speculators hold record seasonal net shorts across grains, with contango-shaped forward curves reinforcing a bearish trading bias

The grain sector has started the final quarter under renewed pressure, with U.S. government data confirming that supplies are more comfortable than expected. On a total return basis, the Bloomberg Commodity Subindex for grains has declined around 9% year-to-date, with steep losses in corn (-13.3%) and wheat (-15.6%) more than offsetting a modest 1.2% gain in soybeans, primarily driven by strength in soybean oil. Against this backdrop, the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report provided a bearish jolt, setting the tone as the 2025/26 marketing year gets underway.

Corn stocks surprise to the upside

The USDA estimated corn inventories at 1.532 billion bushels, around 15% above trade expectations, though still down sharply from 1.763 billion a year earlier. This larger-than-expected carryout reflects weaker feed demand and firm production, leaving the market facing a more comfortable balance sheet than previously assumed.

Chicago December corn futures quickly adjusted, dropping 1.8% to a one-month low of USD 4.13 per bushel, extending a year-to-date decline from an average of USD 4.40. Harvest progress is moving ahead smoothly thanks to warm and dry weather across the grain belt, and forecasts call for more of the same. Ample supply pressure is therefore likely to dominate near-term price action.

Still, corn retains some support from healthy export flows and nagging uncertainty about final yields. Weekly export inspections remain firm, and with U.S. prices competitive, demand from Mexico and other buyers may continue. The market will weigh this against the bearish overhang from higher stocks.

Soybeans: weak beans but firmer oil

Soybean inventories were pegged at 316 million bushels, slightly below consensus at 324 million. The supportive number failed to lift sentiment, however, with November futures sliding 1.6% back below USD 10/bushel, a level that has acted as a pivot throughout the year. Prices have averaged USD 10.29 but remain weighed down by lack of Chinese demand.

China normally accounts for more than 50% of U.S. soybean exports, yet ongoing trade friction has seen importers shift purchases toward Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. is therefore struggling to find buyers, even as harvest accelerates.

Within the soy complex, performance has diverged. Soybean oil is supported by demand from food and biofuels, linking its fortunes to the broader energy market. Soybean meal, on the other hand, remains pressured by weak livestock margins. Soybean meal futures in Chicago have slumped to a nine-year low at USD 271.5 per short ton, weakening the soybean crush margin to near a four‑month low. The crush in soybeans is comparable to the crack spread in crude oil, representing the margin processors or refiners earn by separating soybeans into meal and oil, or crude oil into gasoline and diesel.

Speculators remain firmly bearish

In the latest reporting week to 23 September, the weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money accounts held net short positions across all six major CME‑traded grain and oilseed contracts for the first time in 20 months. The combined net short was also the largest ever recorded for this period. This highlights a market where speculators currently view the path of least resistance as lower, reinforced by the steep contango structure across key crops. In such an environment, short sellers can profit even if outright prices remain unchanged.

Contango refers to a forward curve where near‑month contracts trade below deferred contracts. This typically reflects ample nearby supply, while deferred contracts trade higher due to the cost of storage, insurance, financing and expectations about future harvests. At present, one‑year forward prices for wheat, corn and soybeans are trading 14.9%, 10.5% and 5.2% above nearby contracts, respectively. In practical terms, this means a trader holding a short position would earn roughly those percentages over 12 months if spot prices are unchanged.

Outlook

The U.S. grain market enters the 2025/26 marketing year on the back foot. Stocks data point to more comfortable supply than traders anticipated, while harvest progress continues unimpeded by weather. Corn and wheat are bearing the brunt of the selling, while soybeans remain caught between weak export demand and relative resilience in soybean oil.

Attention will now turn to the next World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates report (WASDE) due on 9 October, the final weeks of U.S. harvest, and the unfolding South American planting season. Global trade flows and policy developments—particularly in China and Russia—will act as potential catalysts. 

1olh_gr1
U.S. Quarterly Stocks Report
1olh_gr2
CBOT Corn futures, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
1olh_gr3
CBOT Wheat futures, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
1olh_gr4
CBOT Soybeans future, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
Related articles/content             
30 Sept 2025: Month-end and Chinas Golden Week cool golds record run
29 Sept 2025: COT on FX and Commodities - Week to 23 September 2025
26 Sept 2025: Commodities weekly Riding a wave of broad-based strength
25 Sept 2025: Copper Grasberg disruption adds fuel to robust demand outlook
24 Sept 2025: Precious metals surge to fresh highs as Fed cuts add fuel
22 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 16 September 2025
17 Sept 2025: In demand gold and silver brace for Fed decision
15 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 9 September 2025
11 Sept 2025: High tech needs low tech AIs power appetite and coppers constraint
8 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 2 September 2025
5 Sept 2025: Commodities weekly Metals lead crude heavy ags under pressure
4 Sept 2025: OPEC supply expansion and Russias export woes keep crude rangebound
3 Sept 2025: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
1 Sept 2025: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
1 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 26 August 2025
28 Aug 2025: Steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold
27 Aug 2025: US lumber futures erase tariff gains hint at housing slowdown
26 Aug 2025: Trouble at the Fed supports gold and silver
25 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 19 August 2025
22 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly ags and energy steady the ship metals lag as Powell looms
21 Aug 2025: Crude oil supported by US inventory decline robust demand and weak positioning
19 Aug 2025: Gold and silver still boxed in waiting for the next catalyst
18 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 12 August
15 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly metals and softs rise in August as energy and grains slide
14 Aug 2025: Weekly gains across soft commodities on weather and policy-induced risks
13 Aug 2025: WASDE projects record corn crop tighter soybeans wheat under pressure
11 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 11 Aug 2025
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
6 Aug 2025: Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions
5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike

Educational resources:
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading copper
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here


More from the author             
This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Les informations contenues sur ce site web vous sont fournies par Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA («Saxo Bank») à des fins éducatives et informatives uniquement. Ces informations ne doivent pas être considérées comme une offre ou une recommandation d'effectuer une transaction ou de recourir à un service particulier, et leur contenu ne doit pas être interprété comme un conseil de toute autre nature, par exemple de nature fiscale ou juridique.

Les transactions sur titres comportent des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre le fonctionnement de nos produits et les risques qui y sont associés. En outre, vous devriez évaluer si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent.

Saxo Bank ne garantit pas l'exactitude, l'exhaustivité ou l'utilité des informations fournies et n'est pas responsable des erreurs, omissions, pertes ou dommages résultant de l'utilisation de ces informations.

Le contenu de ce site web représente du matériel de marketing et n'est pas le résultat d'une analyse ou d'une recherche financière. Il n'a donc pas été préparé conformément aux directives visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche financière/en investissement et n'est soumis à aucune interdiction de négociation avant la diffusion de la recherche financière/en investissement.

Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Suisse

Nous contacter

Select region

Suisse
Suisse

Le trading d’instruments financiers comporte des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre comment fonctionnent nos produits et quels types de risques ils comportent. De plus, vous devez savoir si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent. Pour vous aider à comprendre les risques impliqués, nous avons compilé une divulgation des risques ainsi qu'un ensemble de documents d'informations clés (Key Information Documents ou KID) qui décrivent les risques et opportunités associés à chaque produit. Les KID sont accessibles sur la plateforme de trading. Veuillez noter que le prospectus complet est disponible gratuitement auprès de Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou directement auprès de l'émetteur.

Ce site web est accessible dans le monde entier. Cependant, les informations sur le site web se réfèrent à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Tous les clients traitent directement avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. et tous les accords clients sont conclus avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA et sont donc soumis au droit suisse.

Le contenu de ce site web constitue du matériel de marketing et n'a été signalé ou transmis à aucune autorité réglementaire.

Si vous contactez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou visitez ce site web, vous reconnaissez et acceptez que toutes les données que vous transmettez, recueillez ou enregistrez via ce site web, par téléphone ou par tout autre moyen de communication (par ex. e-mail), à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA peuvent être transmises à d'autres sociétés ou tiers du groupe Saxo Bank en Suisse et à l'étranger et peuvent être enregistrées ou autrement traitées par eux ou Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Vous libérez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA de ses obligations au titre du secret bancaire suisse et du secret des négociants en valeurs mobilières et, dans la mesure permise par la loi, des autres lois et obligations concernant la confidentialité dans le cadre des divulgations de données du client. Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA a pris des mesures techniques et organisationnelles de pointe pour protéger lesdites données contre tout traitement ou transmission non autorisés et appliquera des mesures de sécurité appropriées pour garantir une protection adéquate desdites données.

Apple, iPad et iPhone sont des marques déposées d'Apple Inc., enregistrées aux États-Unis et dans d'autres pays. App Store est une marque de service d'Apple Inc.