Commodities weekly: From glut to disruption – sanctions lift energy as metal sectors diverge

Energy: From Glut Talk to Disruption Risk

A week ago, the dominant narrative in oil was oversupply. Tankers at sea had reached pandemic-era highs, physical differentials were soft, and front-month Brent traded near key support at $60. However, what started as a small recovery after traders started to question the prevailing supply-glut narrative, as movements in the Brent and WTI forward curves remain far from levels that would typically reflect such an imbalance, turned into a short-covering led rally after Washington announced sanctions targeting Russia’s main exporters. The move, aimed at cutting Moscow’s war funding, disrupted flows that had quietly sustained Russian output despite the broader Western embargo.

Brent and WTI extended their rallies, breaching USD 65 and USD 60 respectively, as short positions, which recently had risen amid the prevailing price weakness, were forced to scale back. With weekly COT data covering US markets still offline, the main proxy being Brent which in the most recent update covering managed money positions showed a rise in the gross short a 13-month high. Meanwhile, the prompt-to-six-month Brent spread, which had been hovering in mild contango, flipped toward backwardation—signalling tighter near-term supply.

Refined products led the charge with the spread between London gas oil and Brent rising to a 20-month high reflecting both refinery risk and seasonal heating demand. London gasoil futures jumped more than 9%, their best week since March. With Russian diesel exports now constrained, European refiners face renewed pressure to run harder into winter despite already tight margins.

In our latest crude commentary, we highlighted the ongoing tug of war between a short‑term surplus and an emerging long‑term supply risk. At current price levels, producers remain hesitant to deploy new capital, drilling activity is slowing and decline rates from existing wells are accelerating. Should prices stay depressed, productive capacity could erode faster than anticipated, leaving the market exposed to tighter balances later in the decade. On that basis, crude may re‑establish itself as one of the more compelling contrarian opportunities heading into 2026. 

Natural gas also benefited from the broader energy rally, with U.S. front‑month futures climbing 6.6% on the week as colder weather forecasts boosted expectations for heating demand in the East. However, structural headwinds persist: the January contract—often viewed as the peak‑winter benchmark—now trades roughly one dollar, or about 30%, above November, underscoring a steep seasonal contango. This spread leaves outright long positions facing a heavy roll cost unless demand outpaces forecasts or supply disappoints.

Gold and silver correction to test the market's true strength

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, gold finally hit a wall. Monday’s sharp drop to USD 4,000 signaled the start of a consolidation phase that was both overdue and necessary. The trigger was a mix of post-Diwali demand softening in Asia, a firmer dollar, and a general rotation into risk assets. Yet the structural drivers that fueled the rally—central bank buying, ETF inflows driven by debasement concerns, and persistent inflation uncertainty—remain intact.

The rebound from USD 4,000 support, however, has been modest with resistance near USD 4,150 holding, potentially signalling a deeper correction before the bullish narrative, as expected, reassert itself. Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 1,065-dollar rally since August, a break below a USD 3,970 to USD 4,000 band of support area, may drive additional profit taking towards to the 50% retracement level near USD 3,850.

Silver and platinum also retreated, with silver recording a 12% peak‑to‑trough slide before its rebound stalled just below USD 50, suggesting the market may not yet have found a durable bottom. Using Fibonacci retracements, the next key support below USD 47.80 sits near USD 46.25. The move again highlights silver’s liquidity disadvantage—its daily turnover is roughly one‑ninth that of gold—magnifying both rallies and corrections. Despite thin liquidity, both platinum and silver remain fundamentally tight, with consumption still outpacing production.

For now, the precious metals complex appears to be consolidating rather than collapsing. The broader narrative—gold as a debasement and uncertainty hedge—remains intact, but the market needed a cooling‑off period to prevent speculative excess. The next cues will likely come from developments in U.S.–Russia and U.S.–China relations, and from the pending U.S. Commerce Department Section 232 review on possible tariffs for silver, platinum, and palladium.

Industrial metals see broad gains on tight supply and trade optimism

While precious metals stole all the thunder, industrial metals continued to push higher, supported by tight supply and resilient demand. Overall, the sector saw broad gains lifting the Bloomberg Industrial Metal index by 2.5%. Copper edged closer to last year’s record above USD 11,000, while aluminum reached a three‑year peak near USD 2,900.

Strong consumption growth in the U.S. and India, driven by infrastructure and renewable‑energy investment, has helped offset slower Chinese demand. Ongoing supply issues, including the closure of Freeport‑McMoRan’s Grasberg mine following a deadly mudslide, have added to upward pressure. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks for aluminum have dropped below 500,000 tonnes, and nearly half of the remaining inventory consists of unsellable Russian-origin metal, tightening spot supply even further.

Agriculture: Critical week awaits U.S. soybean farmers

The agricultural space saw soybeans and corn futures rise to one-month highs, supported by a jump in crude oil given the biofuel link to both crops, with the soybean market also finding support from prospects for a U.S. -China trade deal.

According to the American Soybean Association and the U.S. Soybean Export Council, there are currently no new U.S. soybean sales to China, and no shipments expected in the coming weeks. Harvested soybeans are moving into storage instead of export hubs, as China continues to source from South America. While storage capacity can handle the near-term buildup, the risk is mounting for smaller, highly leveraged U.S. farmers. If the export halt persists into November, cash flow pressures could rise sharply, potentially forcing distressed sales.

Much now depends on whether next week’s U.S.-China meetings yield any progress. Even a symbolic agreement to resume modest purchases could ease domestic strain and stabilize prices. Without it, the market may start to price in a more protracted trade standoff, which would cap further upside.

Corn followed soybeans higher, supported by the same biofuel linkages and stronger crude prices. Wheat benefited modestly, still hovering near a multi-year low weighed down by a bumper 2025/26 production, highlighted by the International Grains Council raising its forecast to a record high of 827 million tons in response to upgraded forecasts for Russian, the U.S.  and Argentina.