Commodities: Flying blind as U.S. shutdown halts COT reporting

The three-week U.S. government shutdown has left commodity traders without one of their most valuable tools — the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For a market that thrives on transparency, the absence of positioning data has created an unusual vacuum. The last report, dated September 23, offered a snapshot that now feels ancient given the major price swings seen across energy, metals, and agriculture since then.

The last time this happened — during the 35-day shutdown from December 2018 to late January 2019 — the COT backlog wasn’t fully caught up until March 8. That episode showed how speculative accounts can effectively “operate under the radar” for weeks. In the meantime traders are left focusing on changes in the open interest on the individual futures markets, ETF flows, futures curve shape, and visible stock movements 

Energy: Selling pressure mounts amid oversupply focus

Energy has borne the brunt of the recent market weakness. Both WTI and Brent crude have dropped around 9% since late September as supply fears intensified and timespreads shifted deeper into contango. The amount of crude held at sea has surged toward levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic, signaling swelling inventories and limited storage capacity on land.

Without the COT data, traders have relied on ICE’s weekly updates for Brent and gasoil to infer speculative trends. Those show managed money accounts cutting their net long in Brent for a third straight week to roughly 110,000 contracts — the lowest in five months — while gross short positions rose to a 13-month high near 158,000. The deepening contango suggests traders see little near-term relief, with the prompt market under pressure from weak refinery margins, rising OPEC+ production, and softer seasonal demand.

Driven by broad risk reduction across the energy sector, the gasoil futures contract, a decent barometer for diesel demand, has in the past two weeks seen its net long slip from a 3½‑year high to 57.1k contracts.

For now, the market remains some distance from levels that would support a profitable carry trade, where crude is bought, stored, and sold forward at a higher price, suggesting to some that prompt prices will have to fall further to reflect the mentioned but still questioned overhang of supply. With that in mind we keep track of floating storage at sea as well as land-based tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the country's key crude hub and delivery point for WTI futures.  The short-term focus will be on whether spreads continue to widen — a sign of continued selling pressure — or whether buying interest re-emerges at key technical levels around USD 60 in Brent and USD 55 in WTI.

Precious Metals: Speculators influence remain unclear  

If energy bleeds, metals are glowing. Gold has surged roughly 12% and silver 13% since the last COT report, both setting fresh records before easing back slightly on profit-taking. The absence of positioning data comes at a delicate time with a potential build up in speculative long exposure in both metals making both more vulnerable to correction. Note, managed money accounts such as hedge funds and CTAs are never 'married' to their positions and will seek a swift divorce if prices revert lower through certain thresholds or if volatility spikes.

ETF inflows have provided a partial window into sentiment. Over the past three weeks, gold-backed funds have seen inflows of more than 2 million ounces, while silver ETFs added close to 7 million ounces — and while they suggest managed money accounts have continued to build exposure as well, a decline in the aggregate open interest in the COMEX gold futures suggest the opposite, potentially driven by rising volatility. Silver meanwhile has seen its open interest rise by a moderate 7% signalling some speculative involvement, especially driven by technical buying following the break above USD 50 last week. Silver’s outsized move, supported by retail and Asian demand, highlights its far lower liquidity compared with gold — roughly one-ninth by turnover — meaning price swings tend to be amplified in both directions.

The longer the COT blackout continues, the greater the uncertainty about just how crowded these trades have become. When the data eventually reappears, traders will be watching closely for signs of speculative overreach that could trigger a sharper correction. For now, gold remains well supported by macro headwinds — softening real yields, geopolitical unease, and lingering concerns about debasement — while silver continues to behave like “gold on steroids.”

Industrial Metals: Copper rally led by disruptions to supply

Copper has gained about 7% since the last data point, as supply disruptions at some of the world's biggest mines have supported trend-following momentum buying despite ample stock levels, not least in the U.S. The market continues to find support from mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, as well as tentative optimism about a US - China trade deal. Without COT data, traders are monitoring the mentioned change in open interest, up 11.5% since 23 September, as well as equivalent COT data on LME, exchange monitored inventories, and changes in the forward curve as proxies for positioning.

Agriculture: Divergence across the board

Agriculture futures are painting a more mixed picture. Soybeans have rallied on hopes of renewed U.S.–China trade talks. A deal can not come soon enough for U.S. farmers, facing logistical strains as freshly harvested beans clog Midwest storage. In addition to concerns over thin margins and elevated input costs, they remain desperate for export relief.

In contrast, cocoa has fallen out of favor, tumbling 16% as West African supply jitters eased, while coffee has perked up 17% on tightening supply expectations and tariff drama surrounding imports from Brazil — the lifeblood of Arabica futures in New York. With limited CFTC data to chew on, traders have turned to ICE updates for hints, which show a 30% boost in the Robusta coffee net long to 11.4k contracts, a one-third trim in the white sugar long to 25.7k, and cocoa flipping to a net short of 13k contracts — its biggest bearish stance in three years.

Operating without a compass

The lack of COT transparency has turned positioning analysis into detective work. Traders are increasingly relying on proxies — changes in the open interest on the individual futures markets, ETF flows, options market activity, futures curve shape, and visible stock movements — to gauge sentiment. Markets with deeper data pools, such as oil and gold, can cope better. Others, especially U.S. grains, are more vulnerable to rumor and emotion in the absence of hard numbers normally delivered on a regular basis from the US Department of Agriculture among other through its monthly ‘World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate’.

If the current shutdown drags on, speculative crowding could become more pronounced, raising the risk of sharp reversals when the data finally returns. As the 2019 episode showed, once COT reporting resumes, there is typically a scramble to realign exposures with reality.