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We are at a tipping point - which way do we tip?
Summary: Another ugly day on the US markets as the AI bubble focus heats up and key names are bleeding, from Nvidia and Palantir to Meta and Oracle. With VIX near pivotal levels, it feels like we need to find support here or risk a further and possibly accelerating consolidation in this bull market. That's important for other markets as well, as bond and FX markets have shrugged off the volatility in risk assets so far but can't remain immune to the contagion if risk sentiment deteriorates further. This and more discussed on today's pod, which features Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
Meta shows 15 billion higher risk of scam ads per day, possibly driving 10% or more of its revenue, a very ugly case of the company doing insufficient KYC checks or having reasonable oversight over its platform. You can do better, Meta. A very cool story about solar power infrastructure transforming life in many places in Africa, much like telco-based micropayments transformed commerce in Kenya and many countries there and elsewhere zipped quickly into the internet age via mobile infrastructure that didn’t require corrupt or poorly organized and capitalized governments to make any investments. Roads might be a different matter, but some interesting implications here and the collapse in solar panel prices is truly staggering, even within the last few years. Yes, a lot of it is Chinese overcapacity, but still. Tobias Carlisle on X has a number of useful charts showing that equal weight stock indices have performed better in much of market history, but that hasn’t been the case since 2015 (all the usual concentration stuff we have discussed, Mag7 etc, behind this) and as he says, it could end tomorrow or it could keep going for a decade. I doubt the latter, as our societies will explode within that time frame if we continue down the current path - but let’s see what gives. By the way, on the podcast I said it was Tobias that compared top decile vs. bottom decile stocks, but that was Mike Green responding to a Tobias post. If you missed the Macrovoices podcast with Brent Johnson, who is out on the podcast circuit with a view on how the US is possibly leveraging stablecoin infrastructure to help back the US treasury market and ensure the US dollar’s dominance, he was on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart, who usually does a great job of prodding guests for a deeper explanation of their theories and thoughtful additional questions. Cryptic story that Foxconn is set to produce humanoid robots in Texas to help produce AI servers. Okay…but can they dance like the Tesla Optimus? Open AI has USD 1.4 trillion in commitments and USD 13 billion in revenues. Discuss. This is a hideous chart, one in freefall for now until further notice on the companies massive capex, with some of it even hidden off balance sheet in an SPV with a private equity outfit. If the US legal system can find any way of functioning when it comes to Big Tech malfeasance, there ought to be a mass class action lawsuit against the company for its lack of oversight and its profiting on scams and frauds as noted in the story linked to above. Sorry, mind the Schadenfreude here, but even if there is no major legal action against the company, more investors, private and institutional might begin to feel that owning the company is the moral equivalent of owning a tobacco company in terms of harm to, in this case, mental health even beyond the outright financial frauds. Next stop 500? Chart of the Day - Meta (META) weekly
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