Saxo-Market-Call_Platform_1920x1280_Test 5

We are at a tipping point - which way do we tip?

Podcast 19 minutes to read
Saxo Logo
Saxo Market Call

Summary:  Another ugly day on the US markets as the AI bubble focus heats up and key names are bleeding, from Nvidia and Palantir to Meta and Oracle. With VIX near pivotal levels, it feels like we need to find support here or risk a further and possibly accelerating consolidation in this bull market. That's important for other markets as well, as bond and FX markets have shrugged off the volatility in risk assets so far but can't remain immune to the contagion if risk sentiment deteriorates further. This and more discussed on today's pod, which features Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.


Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Meta shows 15 billion higher risk of scam ads per day, possibly driving 10% or more of its revenue, a very ugly case of the company doing insufficient KYC checks or having reasonable oversight over its platform. You can do better, Meta.

very cool story about solar power infrastructure transforming life in many places in Africa, much like telco-based micropayments transformed commerce in Kenya and many countries there and elsewhere zipped quickly into the internet age via mobile infrastructure that didn’t require corrupt or poorly organized and capitalized governments to make any investments. Roads might be a different matter, but some interesting implications here and the collapse in solar panel prices is truly staggering, even within the last few years. Yes, a lot of it is Chinese overcapacity, but still.

Tobias Carlisle on X has a number of useful charts showing that equal weight stock indices have performed better in much of market history, but that hasn’t been the case since 2015 (all the usual concentration stuff we have discussed, Mag7 etc, behind this) and as he says, it could end tomorrow or it could keep going for a decade. I doubt the latter, as our societies will explode within that time frame if we continue down the current path - but let’s see what gives. By the way, on the podcast I said it was Tobias that compared top decile vs. bottom decile stocks, but that was Mike Green responding to a Tobias post.

If you missed the Macrovoices podcast with Brent Johnson, who is out on the podcast circuit with a view on how the US is possibly leveraging stablecoin infrastructure to help back the US treasury market and ensure the US dollar’s dominance, he was on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart, who usually does a great job of prodding guests for a deeper explanation of their theories and thoughtful additional questions.

Cryptic story that Foxconn is set to produce humanoid robots in Texas to help produce AI servers. Okay…but can they dance like the Tesla Optimus?

Open AI has USD 1.4 trillion in commitments and USD 13 billion in revenues. Discuss.

Chart of the Day - Meta (META) weekly

This is a hideous chart, one in freefall for now until further notice on the companies massive capex, with some of it even hidden off balance sheet in an SPV with a private equity outfit. If the US legal system can find any way of functioning when it comes to Big Tech malfeasance, there ought to be a mass class action lawsuit against the company for its lack of oversight and its profiting on scams and frauds as noted in the story linked to above. Sorry, mind the Schadenfreude here, but even if there is no major legal action against the company, more investors, private and institutional might begin to feel that owning the company is the moral equivalent of owning a tobacco company in terms of harm to, in this case, mental health even beyond the outright financial frauds. Next stop 500?

 

07_11_2025_Meta
Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.