Market Quick Take - Asian chipmakers rebound and Brent holds below USD 100 - 9 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Strong payrolls lift Fed hike bets as Iran talks and Nvidia investigation take centre stage
• Equities: US equities partly rebounded after Thursday's selloff, Europe extended losses, Asian markets recovered as technology stocks stabilised.
• Volatility: Implied volatility eased from its spike but the curve stays inverted ahead of CPI
• Digital Assets: AI-hosting miners rebounded while bitcoin slipped to a three-month low before steadying
• Commodities: Oil extends slump as gold rebounds and hedge funds slash commodity exposure
• Fixed Income: US front-end yields rose Friday, but reaction to strong US job report not decisive.
• Currencies: USD strength from Friday partially reverses. NZD rises on NZ election result.

Macro

• Nvidia CEO faces investigation over alleged Chinese spy links: Jensen Huang has admitted to an affair with a woman identified in media reports as a suspected Chinese spy, prompting an internal board investigation. The revelations raise significant governance and potential national security concerns for Nvidia, the world's most valuable chipmaker, valued at around USD 5 trillion and central to the global AI boom. Given its market dominance and substantial weight in major US equity indices, any fallout could have broader implications for investor confidence and technology stocks.
• US nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October, well above forecasts of around 60,000 to 65,000, with unemployment falling to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month. Fed officials Williams, Musalem and Daly backed further rate increases, and futures moved further toward a hike at the 8 to 9 December meeting, from a 3.75% to 4.00% target range.
• On Iran, President Trump confirmed limited US strikes on an Iranian air-defence site on Qeshm Island and said talks were progressing, later telling CNN that fresh strikes were highly unlikely if negotiations advance. Secretary of State Rubio criticised Iran's latest demands as unacceptable, and the US announced a task force extending the blockade of Iranian ports to land and Caspian routes.
• China's October producer prices rose 5.7% from a year earlier, against 5.3% expected and the fastest pace in more than four years, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%.
• New Zealand’s election at the weekend saw support for the ruling National Party eroding, but with the party still seen likely to remain in power if it is able to form a coalition with smaller parties. The New Zealand dollar firmed on the development.
• US October CPI and China's trade data are due on Tuesday, the US bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day, UK third-quarter GDP follows on Thursday and US PPI on Friday. CoreWeave reports on Tuesday, and Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1500 – US Fed’s Goolsbee to speak
• 1715 – US Fed’s Barkin to speak
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes
• 0030 – Australia Oct. NAB Business Confidence Survey
• G7 Foreign ministers meet in Paris (through Tuesday)

Earnings events

• Monday: KKR, Constellation Energy
• Tuesday: Softbank Group, Infineon
• Wednesday: Siemens Energy, E.ON, RWE
• Thursday: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Brookfield, Merck, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US equities stabilised on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% to 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.4% to 26,989.99, while the Dow slipped 0.5% to 51,285.73. Semiconductor stocks rebounded 4.2% as investors reconsidered the previous day's sharp selloff, driven by concerns that the Democratic midterm sweep could bring tighter AI regulation and slower data centre investment. AMD surged 11.0% and Nvidia gained 2.8% as chipmakers recovered, while Airbnb jumped 11.7% after raising its full-year revenue growth forecast. However, stronger-than-expected US employment data revived concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening, putting Tuesday's inflation report firmly in focus.
• Europe: European equities extended their decline on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1% to 648.33, Germany's DAX losing 1.9% and the FTSE 100 dropping 1%, as concerns over AI valuations and tighter regulation weighed on sentiment. Insurance stocks led losses, with Munich Re declining 4.3% following an analyst downgrade, while Swiss Re fell 4.6% despite stronger profits. Teleperformance plunged 15.3% after lowering its annual revenue growth outlook, highlighting company-specific risks beyond technology. Renewable energy stocks offered some support, with Nordex gaining 5% on expectations of more favourable US clean energy policies. Europe's lower exposure to AI helped limit the broader damage.
• Asia: Asian equities rebounded on Monday after Friday's heavy losses, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining around 2.5% in afternoon trading, South Korea's Kospi recovering and Taiwan's Taiex advancing 5%. The recovery followed Friday's rebound in US semiconductor stocks, although concerns about AI investment and potential regulatory restrictions remained. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing gained 5.6%, supported by renewed demand for chipmakers, while Tokyo Electron rose nearly 3% as investors bought back semiconductor equipment shares. Investors now turned their attention to US inflation data and upcoming technology earnings.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 25.64 | VIX FUTURES: 22.250 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: BACKWARDATION | SKEW: ELEVATED (153.55) | MARKET REGIME: HIGH VOL BEAR | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Friday's options market faded Thursday's chip rout without pricing it out. The VIX fell 9% to 25.64 and one-day vol dropped more than a fifth. Both still sit above the three-month gauge, so the curve remains inverted from spot to VIX3M. In futures, November's premium over December has roughly halved since Thursday, and the hike-risk hump around the 8 to 9 December Fed is flattening rather than building. SKEW rose to 153.55, so tail puts got dearer even as headline vol eased. Nasdaq vol stays well above the VIX, and MOVE fell 5%, leaving the stress in tech rather than rates.
• Options price about 1.25% for today and 2.54% to Friday, a window that holds Tuesday's CPI.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~74,824 +0.14% | ETHEREUM ~2,140 +0.72% | IBIT 42.88 -0.35% | ETHA 50.33 -0.87% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Bitcoin's slide to its lowest since August was a leverage flush rather than a new story. More than USD 1bn of positions were liquidated over the weekend, most of them ether longs, before bitcoin recovered from about 73,700 to near 74,800.
• The listed names split on business model. AI-hosting miners rebounded hardest: Iren gained about 20% after its AI cloud revenue nearly tripled, and Cipher and Riot followed as investors priced data-centre contracts over hash rate. Coinbase slipped as analysts questioned its earnings recovery. Bitcoin funds shed about USD 412m on Friday, almost all through IBIT, and spot now trades below Strategy's average purchase cost, ahead of its weekly filing today.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent extends its sharp decline, trading 1.5% lower at USD 96.80 a barrel after the January front-month contract slumped around 16% last week, its steepest weekly decline since the start of the pandemic. Monday's weakness follows President Trump's comments that fresh strikes on Iran are highly unlikely if talks progress, even as tanker attacks in the Gulf continue. Crude has tumbled from a six-month high at the end of October after a Democratic sweep of US midterm elections boosted expectations that there won’t be a serious escalation in the conflict.
• Metals: Gold rebounds as the dollar softens and oil retreats. Spot gold trades 1.25% higher at USD 4,122 an ounce, recovering from Friday's 1% decline when a stronger-than-expected payrolls lifted the dollar and revived expectations of a December Fed rate hike. Supported today by a softer greenback and falling oil prices as diplomacy offers a potential path towards ending the US-Iran conflict. Underlying demand remains firm, with central banks purchasing 321 tonnes in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 2024, according to the World Gold Council. Together with ETF investors, they absorbed selling from short-term momentum funds. Focus now turns to Tuesday's US CPI report and local resistance near USD 4,150. Silver rises 1.6% to USD 52.75, while copper rebounds 1.5% to USD 6.33 per pound from a four-month low.
• COT commodities: A sea of red ahead of the US midterms. In the week to 3 November hedge funds were net sellers across all 25 major commodity futures tracked, cutting their combined net long by 33% to 783k contracts. The unusually broad retreat, driven by widespread long liquidation and fresh short selling, coincided with a 3.3% slump in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Crude oil, metals and grains were particularly hard hit, with corn and platinum flipping to net short positions, while the natural gas short reached a six-year high.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields saw a volatile session on Friday, especially at the front end of the US yield curve, but ended the day higher. Earlier in the day, treasuries remained bid after the steep rally the previous day on the steep sell-off in equity markets. Then, the strong US jobs report saw a sell-off in in treasuries that was quickly reversed, though yields still ended the day slightly higher. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rebounded five basis points to close at 4.51%, and down almost seven basis points for the week. The benchmark 10-year US treasury yield ended the day about two basis points higher near 4.86%.
• US high yield corporate bonds held steady Friday, as risk sentiment managed to avoid further deterioration after the sharp weakening on Thursday. The Bloomberg index we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightened four basis points from the cycle highs of the prior day to close the day at 336 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar firmed Friday, both earlier in the day and then later on the strong US October jobs data. The strength partially reversed in early Monday trading hours. EURUSD trades early Monday in Europe near 1.1165 after the 1.1131 low Friday, while USDJPY trades near 158.22 after another confrontation of the massive line of resistance near 158.50 on Friday and early Monday.
• New Zealand’s election triggered some volatility in the kiwi, with strength emerging in the evening on Monday in New Zealand (early hours in Europe) as the centre-right National Party was seen more likely to remain in power. AUDNZD dipped as low as 1.2300 after closing Friday at 1.2387.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis