Asia Market Quick Take – October 3, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – October 3, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump threatens mass federal job cuts to pressure Democrats
• Equities: Hang Seng Index rises 1.6%, highest in 4 years
• FX: Norwegian krone lagged G10 peers as oil extended its slide
• Commodities: Oil hit five-month lows on OPEC+ supply-restoration expectations
• Fixed income: Treasuries mixed; curve flatter; volumes light

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Entering its second day, the government shutdown prompted Trump to threaten widespread federal job cuts to pressure Democrats. The closure also led to a data blackout, delaying the Labor Department's scheduled release of September's nonfarm payrolls.
• US employers announced 54,064 job cuts, the lowest in three months and down 25.8% year-on-year. Services cut the most jobs, followed by energy and technology sectors. In Q3, planned layoffs totaled 202,118, the highest since 2020. So far this year, 946,426 job cuts have been announced, the highest since 2020. Government (299,755) and technology (107,878) sectors led layoffs. Andy Challenger noted a stagnating labor market and potential stabilization in Q4 with upcoming rate cuts, though layoffs may continue.
• Euro Area unemployment rate rose to 6.3% from July's 6.2%, against expectations for stability. The jobless count increased by 11,000 to 10.842 million. Youth unemployment held at 14%, and Spain, France, and Italy had the highest rates, while Germany and the Netherlands had the lowest. A year ago, the rate was also 6.3%. The EU unemployment rate was 5.9%.

Equities: 

• US - US stock futures remained flat on Friday after Wall Street hit new highs, driven by AI excitement around OpenAI. On Thursday, the Dow rose 0.06%, S&P 500 0.17%, and Nasdaq 0.39%. Gains were led by tech stocks, with Nvidia up 0.9%, AMD 3.5%, and Intel 3.8%. Tesla fell more than 5%, despite earlier gains and a 7.4% year-on-year increase in Q3 vehicle deliveries, boosted by the expiration of the EV tax credit in September. OpenAI's $6.6 billion share sale, valuing the firm at $500 billion, boosted optimism. Applied Materials said expanded US export curbs on sales to China will further dent revenue. It said a new BIS rule widens the range of companies subject to restrictions and is expected to reduce fiscal 2026 revenue by about $600 million (year ending next October). Shares fell as much as 5.6% after-hours, having earlier closed up 2.7% at $223.59.
• Hong Kong - Hang Seng jumped 431 points (1.6%) to 27,287, its highest in over four years. Tech stocks led, with SMIC up 13% after Samsung and Hynix partnerships, and gains for Kuaishou, Tencent, and Meituan. Consumer stocks rose on Fed rate cut bets, while Nio climbed 6.6% on record sales. Pharma stocks gained from Pfizer's deal with President Trump. Alibaba rose 3.9% after a JP Morgan target increase. Gains were tempered by caution over Hong Kong retail sales data.
• Japan - Nikkei 225 climbed 0.87% to 44,937, ending a four-day losing streak, spurred by US market gains and chip stocks. Wall Street's strength and Fed rate cut expectations offset US shutdown concerns. AI optimism grew after OpenAI's deal with Samsung and SK Hynix. Tokyo Electron surged 7.9%, Advantest rose 2.5%, and SoftBank gained 5.8%. Disco, Lasertec, and Sanrio also performed well.

Earnings this week:

• Friday – N/A

FX:

• The Norwegian krone lagged G10 peers as oil extended its decline, while US political gridlock and delayed macro data set the tone. USDNOK rose 0.6% to 9.9840, its biggest daily gain in a week, as oil fell for a fourth day on expectations OPEC+ will restore more idled supply this weekend.
• USDJPY edged up to 147.13, with the Liberal Democratic Party’s 4 October leadership vote looming; Polymarket implies a 77% chance Shinjiro Koizumi becomes the next prime minister.
• USDCAD rose 0.2% to 1.3962 after the Bank of Canada cautioned against overemphasising its preferred core measures, noting broader gauges put underlying inflation closer to 2%.
• EURUSD dipped 0.1% to 1.1725 as the EU plans to lift steel import tariffs to 50%, while GBPUSD weakened 0.2% to 1.3449.

Commodities:

• Oil fell to five-month lows as expectations that OPEC+ will restore more idled supply at the weekend meeting coincided with risk‑off sentiment from the US government shutdown. WTI slid over 2% to settle at $60.48, the lowest since early May, while Brent settled near $64, the weakest since late May. Early signs of oversupply are emerging in the Middle East, and US crude and petrol inventories swelled last week.
• Gold eased as the dollar strengthened and investors took profits after a five-day record run. With the US shutdown delaying key releases, traders turned to proxies; in the absence of weekly jobless claims, Challenger, Gray & Christmas data drew focus, showing employers dialled back September hiring plans and announced fewer job cuts.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries ended narrowly mixed, with a flatter curve as the long end richened and the front end edged cheaper pivoting around a little-changed 5-year. Volumes were below average as the second day of the US government shutdown delayed weekly jobless claims and August factory orders. Notable fed funds futures flows included 60,000 October contracts sold at 95.920 and a 55,000 November block at 96.150, likely unwinds as the shutdown deprives the Fed of data to guide rate decisions.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.