Asia Market Quick Take – 01 July, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 1 July, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: US Job openings at 2-year high, above expectations 
• Equities: Chip/memory sectors lead overnight market rally 
• FX: USDJPY trades to 4 decade high; risks of intervention 
• Commodities: Oil posted its biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic, down ~30% 
• Fixed income: Treasuries sold off across the curve, with 10-year yields up 9 bps to 4.47%. 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro: 

• US May 2026 JOLTS: Job openings edged up to 7.59 million, a two‑year high and well above the 7.30 million forecast, signalling a resilient labour market despite higher energy costs. Gains were led by wholesale, accommodation and food services, and real estate, while openings fell in health care and finance. Hires (5.2 million), separations (5.1 million), quits and layoffs were little changed. 
• BoJ’s large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to 22 in Q2 2026 from 17 in Q1, beating expectations of 16 and marking the highest level since Q1 2018. Large firms now see capital expenditure up 11.5%, versus 3.3% in Q1.
• Washington and Tehran are seeking a lasting deal, though Iran insists on controlling the waterway. Oil tanker traffic is rebounding after US–Iran clashes over Hormuz ceased. Analysts warn of a supply glut as exports surge: Iran says it has shipped over 40 million barrels since the US lifted its naval blockade, while Russian exports hit record highs, swelling barrels at sea.
• Germany’s inflation slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in June from 2.6% in May, below the 2.6% forecast and down from April’s 2.9%. Goods inflation eased to 1.7% from 2.2% on weaker energy prices (3.4% vs. 6.6%), while food (0.4%), services (3.1%), and core inflation (2.5%) were unchanged. The EU-harmonized rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, still slightly above the ECB’s 2% target.

Equities:  

• US: The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,499.36 on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7% and the Dow gained 0.3% to 52,319.20, capping the best quarter for all three indices since 2020. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.9%. Nvidia led the S&P 500 higher (+2.6%), while Sandisk was the top single-stock mover (+10.9%). KLA Corp, AMD, and Intel all hit record highs. After hours, AeroVironment soared ~33% on a strong Q4 beat, while Concentrix tumbled ~25% after slashing its full-year outlook. Nike fell 2% after management warned the environment is not expected to improve meaningfully over the next six months.
• EU: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.9% to a record 641.73 on Tuesday, capping its best quarter since 2020 (+10%). The DAX rose 1.5% to 24,995.81, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended Q2 up 13.6%, and the CAC 40 closed the quarter 7.5% higher. ASML surged 6.8%, leading the tech subindex. Abivax soared 38.7% on strong clinical trial results. Kering slid on analyst caution ahead of its first-half report. Teleperformance fell as much as 12% in sympathy with Concentrix's outlook cut. European defence stocks outperformed after the UK announced a £15 billion boost to military spending. 
• Asia: Asian equities capped their best quarter in nearly 17 years on Tuesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific rising 21% over Q2. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to 70,062.32 on Tuesday, posting its biggest-ever quarterly advance, with Nikkei futures pointing to further gains of ~1.1% at the open today. The Kospi rose 1% to 8,476.48 on Tuesday, led by Samsung Electronics (+3.4%), with the index posting its best quarter since 1998. TSMC jumped as much as 4.4% in Taipei after Morgan Stanley raised its price target by 12%. In Hong Kong, Want Want China tumbled as much as 13% after reporting an 11% drop in full-year net income, missing estimates. The STI was broadly supported by the regional tech-driven rally. Equity-index futures point to gains across Japan and South Korea at Wednesday's open. 

Earnings this week: 

• Wednesday - General Mills, FactSet Research Systems
• Friday – US market closed 

FX: 

• Overnight FX moves were modest, but the USD remains broadly firmer heading into Q3. In Q2, the Dollar Index rose 0.85%, its biggest gain since Q3 2025 and the fourth straight positive quarter. 
• USDJPY is holding around 162.69, its highest in roughly four decades. Markets remain alert for possible action from Japanese authorities, though comments from Finance Minister Katayama have not indicated imminent intervention.   
• EURUSD fell 2.05% in June, its sharpest monthly drop since March 2026, ending around 1.1423. The euro has now declined for two consecutive quarters, down 2.78% over that period. 
• AUDUSD is roughly unchanged near 0.6919 after a 0.5% gain in New York, helped by quarter-end equity flows. Analysts warn that the key drivers of the AUD’s 2026 strength — global reflation, firm commodity demand and a hawkish RBA — are all fading at once, increasing the risk of a more durable pullback. 
• USDCNH slipped 0.1% on Tuesday to 6.7915, paring June’s rise to 0.4%, still the largest monthly dollar gain versus the offshore yuan since July 2025. The PBOC’s daily fix remains a key focus for traders. 

Commodities: 

• WTI traded near $70 a barrel and Brent closed below $73, after oil posted its biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic (-~30% in Q2). Prices steadied as US-Iran peace talks progressed in Doha and Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic continued to recover. Brent had reached a Q2 high of $98.99 before retreating to a low of $71.38. 
• Spot gold held above $4,000 an ounce as traders weighed the strong US labour data against the Fed rate outlook and Iran peace developments. Gold ETFs saw their fifth consecutive day of outflows on Tuesday, with 200,602 troy ounces sold, bringing year-to-date net sales to 2.41 million ounces. 
• LME copper rose 0.7% to $13,375 per metric ton, trimming its monthly loss to 1.9%, supported by Hormuz peace talk optimism. Comex copper ended Q2 up 10.8%. Silver posted a record quarterly point decline in Q2, falling 20.4% to $59.477 per troy ounce — its largest quarterly percentage drop since Q1 2020 — though it bounced 2.2% on Tuesday. 

Fixed income:  

• Treasuries staged an unexpected selloff, with 10-year yields climbing 9bps to 4.47%, catching long Treasury positioning offside. The move was driven by the stronger-than-expected JOLTS print and futures selling into month-end. The 30-year yield rose to 4.902% on the day, though it ended Q2 down 9bps for the month — its largest monthly yield decline since February 2026.
• Rate hike premium has edged back into front-end swaps, with July hike odds at ~36%. Traders in 2-year note futures resumed heavy position liquidations on Monday, with open interest dropping approximately $1.6M/DV01 — the largest position cut since the September contract roll. JPMorgan argues the 10-year yield underprices Fed tightening risk, noting it trades ~27bps below model-implied fair value.
• Australian and New Zealand government bonds fell in early Wednesday trade, tracking the overnight US Treasury selloff.  

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