Asia Market Quick Take – October 14, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump softens tone with China and on track to meet in October
• Equities: Markets recovered; Nasdaq 100 gained 2.2% with Broadcom gaining 9.9%
• FX: Dollar gains as Trump eases China rhetoric; GBP, CAD, and EUR weakened
• Commodities: Silver at a record above $52.50; gold extends to a fresh $4,130
• Fixed income: US and Japan bond markets reopen after holiday

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Trump is set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea, aiming to ease tensions over tariffs and export controls. Bessent highlighted significant weekend communications between the two nations and anticipated further meetings, noting that tariffs won't take effect until November 1. Trump asserted that China miscalculated but emphasized that 100% tariffs aren't necessary and US-China relations are strong. Bessent stated the US will reject licensing requirements and is proactively addressing the issue, noting the US holds more leverage.
• UK retail sales increased by 2% year-on-year, slowing from 2.9% in August due to inflation fears and expected tax rises. This fell short of 2.5% market expectations. Food sales rose 4.3% with higher grocery prices, while non-food sales edged up 0.7% as mild weather delayed autumn and winter clothing purchases. BRC's Helen Dickinson attributed slower spending to budget concerns and higher bills, while electrical sales thrived with new Apple product launches.
• French President Emmanuel Macron addressed a political crisis by unveiling a new cabinet and reappointing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks surged Monday, rebounding from Friday’s sharp sell-off after President Trump struck a softer tone on US-China trade tensions, saying relations with Beijing “will all be fine.” The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, Nasdaq 100 gained 2.2%, and Dow Jones jumped 588 points as investors returned to risk assets. Technology led gains: Nvidia up 2.9%, AMD 0.8%, Oracle 5.1%, and Broadcom 9.9% after confirming an AI partnership with OpenAI to sell custom chips and networking components. Despite optimism, caution lingered amid a prolonged government shutdown and delayed economic data.
• EU - European stocks rose Monday, with the Stoxx 50 up 0.5% and Stoxx 600 gaining 0.3%, driven by a rebound in mining shares after President Trump eased trade war fears, saying ties with China “will all be fine.” The Basic Materials Index jumped 2.4%, led by Fresnillo (+9.5%), Antofagasta (+5.1%), Aurubis (+3.7%) and Anglo American (+3%). ASML climbed 3.2% after the Dutch government seized control of Nexperia to secure chip supplies. Lloyds added nearly 1% despite setting aside £800m for car finance mis-selling. AstraZeneca slipped 0.3% after agreeing to lower US drug prices. In France, PM Sebastien Lecornu appointed Roland Lescure as finance minister.
• HK - Hang Seng fell 1.5% to 25,889 on Monday, its sixth straight loss, as all sectors dragged the index to a one-month low. Sentiment soured after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and new export controls from 1 November, despite later easing comments. Mainland stocks also retreated from decade highs. Losses were cushioned by upbeat Chinese trade data showing strong September exports and imports, while U.S. futures rose ahead of earnings season. Xiaomi plunged 6.1% after a car fire, China Vanke slid 3.3% on its chairman’s exit, while Zijin Mining surged 7.8% on record gold prices and a Kazakhstan mine deal.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: Tech Mahindra; Aeon; Takashimaya; JPMorgan; Goldman Sachs; Citi; Johnson & Johnson; Wells Fargo
• Wednesday: HDFC Asset; Bank of Queensland; Bank of America; Morgan Stanley; ASML
• Thursday: Infosys; ABB, TSMC
• Friday: Tokyo Steel; American Express; Interactive Brokers; Volvo

FX:

• USD rebounded as Trump eased tensions with China, following his earlier threats of 100% tariffs. He assured via Truth Social that relations would improve, and Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested those tariffs might not be necessary as Trump prepares to meet President Xi in Korea. Meanwhile, China's trade data outperformed expectations.
• USD's strength affected G10 currencies, with the AUD leading gains amid risk-on sentiment. AUDUSD trading above 0.65.
• GBP, CAD, and EUR weakened. BoE's Greene noted stronger activity than anticipated, suggesting prolonged higher rates without cuts, while French politics focused on budget cuts and deficit reduction plans.
• JPY and CHF unwound safe-haven flows, USDJPY traded above 152.50 and USDCHF traded around 0.8050.

Commodities:

• Oil steadied as investors weighed US–China tensions against demand. WTI hovered near $60 after a 1% rebound from Friday’s 4.2% plunge, while Brent closed just above $63 as President Trump softened his tone and signalled openness to a deal.
• Silver hit a record above $52.50 amid a London short squeeze and safe‑haven demand, reaching $52.5868 and surpassing its 1980 peak. Spot gold up 0.5% to $4,129.80 after Monday’s 2.3% gain, while platinum and palladium also gained.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures signal a steeper curve when cash Treasuries reopen after the US holiday, with long and ultra‑longs lagging; SOFR options were quiet with some December upside buying. Japan’s market reopens after Monday’s holiday. Japanese 10‑year futures rose 52 ticks to 136.42 Friday on Trump’s tariff threat. Focus shifts to Wednesday’s 20‑year auction amid coalition turmoil.

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