Asia Market Quick Take – November 26, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Hasset is reportedly the leading candidate for Fed chair
• Equities: US stocks rise; Alibaba ADR fell 2.3% as competition hit profits
• FX: USD fell on weak data; GBP, JPY, and EUR gained amid USD weakness
• Commodities: Oil stable, Ukraine peace progress; Gold steady amid rate cut outlook
• Fixed income: Treasuries up; Hassett Fed chair news; focus on Japan JGB auction

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Hassett is reportedly the leading candidate for Fed Chair, according to Bloomberg sources. Hassett is expected to align with Trump's interest rate cutting approach. However, Trump's decisions often change unexpectedly, so the nomination is not confirmed until publicly announced.
• US retail sales increased by 0.2% in September 2025, the smallest rise in four months and below the 0.4% forecast. Notable increases were at miscellaneous store retailers (2.9%) and gasoline stations (2%). Declines occurred in sporting goods (-2.5%), clothing (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.5%). Sales, excluding key sectors for GDP calculation, fell 0.1% versus a 0.6% rise in August.
• US producer prices rose 0.3% in September 2025, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in August and meeting market expectations. Food prices increased by 1.1%, driven by higher meat costs, while energy prices rose 3.5%, boosting goods inflation to 0.9%, the highest in over a year. Service prices remained unchanged. Annual producer price inflation held steady at 2.7%.
• US private employers cut 13,500 jobs weekly in the four weeks to November 8, 2025, up from a 2,500 decline earlier, per ADP Research. Job losses accelerated due to major cuts by companies like Amazon and Target. The November employment report is set for December 3 release.
• US consumer confidence weakened in November amid rising labour‑market and economic concerns, with expectations at their lowest since April and present conditions at a more than one‑year low, while the share expecting income gains over the next six months fell to the lowest since February 2023 and views on current and future business conditions deteriorated.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, Nasdaq 0.5%, and Dow 700 points, amid optimism for AI and potential Fed rate cuts. Gains were led by communication services, health care, and materials. Alphabet rose 1.6% and Meta 3.8% on potential AI chip deals, while Nvidia dropped 2.6%, marking its worst month since September 2022 if the trend continues. Oracle fell 1.6% and AMD 4.2%. JPMorgan anticipates a softer dollar next year due to easier U.S. monetary policy, though future rate hike bets may challenge this.
• EU - European stocks closed higher Tuesday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 rising 0.9% as weak U.S. data lifted Fed rate cut expectations. Bank stocks, including Société Générale and UniCredit, gained over 2%, while RWE and SAP fell. Beazley dropped 10% on forecast cuts, while ABN AMRO rose 6.4% with job cut plans, and Kingfisher jumped 6% after boosting its profit outlook.
• HK – Hang Seng Index rose 1.0% to 25,977 early Tuesday, supported by Wall Street’s rally and Fed rate cut hopes. Eased AI valuation concerns boosted sentiment. A Trump-Xi call signaled better Sino-US relations. Xiaomi surged 5%, leading tech gains. Mainland China's indices climbed, driven by tech and AI stocks following Wall Street's rise. PBoC’s planned CNY 1 trillion MLF operation may inject CNY 100 billion liquidity. Suzhou Novosense gained 5% on share buyback plans. Alibaba's ADRs fell 2.3% due to a dip in China e-commerce profits amid Meituan rivalry, marking two quarters of negative free cash flow. Cloud and AI sales beat expectations. Q2 revenue rose 4.8% to 247.80 billion yuan, despite declines in adjusted EBITDA and net income. Ant Group contributed $384m to profits.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday

  Li Auto, Alibaba Health Information, Envision Greenwise, Rockwool, CD Projekt, Aroundtown, Tiger Brands, Strauss Group, Deere

• Thursday

  Bosideng International, Sime Darby, Luk Fook Holdings, Ryman Healthcare, Oberbank, Asseco Poland, Remy Cointreau, CPI Europe, Grenergy Renovables

• Friday

  Meituan, Chagee, China Gas, China Water Affairs, CPI Property, Dottikon ES, 4iG, Kernel Holding, Electrica

FX:

• USD declined amid lower-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales and Core PPI data and optimistic Ukraine-Russia news. Ukraine accepted peace terms, but Russia likely rejected them. Poor consumer confidence, weak ADP figures, and disappointing Richmond Fed data added pressure. JPMorgan anticipates a softer dollar next year due to easier U.S. monetary policy, though future rate hike bets may challenge this.
• USDJPY fell 0.5% to 156.10. Japan's Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi expressed urgency over currency movements.
• EURUSD rose 0.4% to 1.1570, driven by global growth and Europe's upswing. GBPUSD advanced 0.5% to 1.3170 amid UK budget anticipation, with traders pricing in steep options against potential pound swings.
• AUDNZD lost 0.1% to 1.1515, as New Zealand's central bank is expected to cut rates, allowing for further reductions in 2026 if economic momentum lags.

Commodities:

• Oil steadied after a one‑month low on Ukraine peace‑deal progress that could lift curbs on Russian crude amid a looming glut, with WTI near $58 after Tuesday’s 1.5% drop and Brent above $62, as Trump said only a few disagreements remain and sent negotiators for further high‑level talks.
• Gold was little changed around $4,135 as traders balanced US rate‑cut prospects—bolstered by delayed data showing cooling retail momentum and the steepest confidence drop since April—against a possible Ukraine peace deal; it rose 0.1% to $4,135.08, with silver and palladium little changed and platinum edging higher.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rose, led by the front end and intermediates, hitting session highs after a report named Kevin Hassett the frontrunner for Fed chair, with curve‑steepening holding post 5‑year auction and 2s10s/5s30s near peaks as the 10‑year hovered around 4% after briefly dipping below for the first time since the 29 Oct FOMC. Focus shifts to Japan’s ultra‑long JGB sale, with the Ministry of Finance auctioning a June 2065 bond for ¥400 billion.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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