Asia Market Quick Take – November 18, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Waller advocates for December rate cut due to weak labour market
• Equities: Nasdaq 100 -0.8%, S&P 500 -0.9%; Alphabet rises 3% after Berkshire stake
• FX: EURJPY reached a record high above 180 before retreating
• Commodities: Gold nears $4,000 after a three-day decline
• Fixed income: Amazon raised $15 billion through its first US dollar bond offering in three years

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Fed Waller advocates for continuing interest rate cuts, supporting a 25bps cut in December to insure the labor market, which he sees as weak. US inflation aligns with the 2% target, and expectations remain anchored. Tariffs are viewed as a one-time shock. US GDP growth slowed in H2 2025, with weakened consumer sentiment and affordability issues affecting spending. Waller believes no upcoming data, including jobs report, will alter his view on the need for another rate cut.
• Canada's inflation dropped to 2.2% in October 2025 from 2.4% in September, approaching the Bank of Canada's 2% target. Gasoline prices fell 9.4%, slowing transportation inflation to 0.7%. Food and shelter inflation eased, while cellular service costs rose 7.7% after major price hikes. The trimmed-mean core inflation rate decreased to 3%.
• US construction spending increased 0.2% month-over-month in August 2025, matching July's revised rise and defying a forecasted 0.1% decline. Residential spending surged 0.8%, balancing a 0.2% drop in nonresidential activity. Private construction spending grew 0.3%, while public spending remained unchanged. Year-on-year, construction spending fell 1.6%, with 2025's first eight months totaling $1,438 billion, 1.8% below 2024 levels.
• The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 18.7 in November 2025 from 10.7 in October, exceeding the forecast of 6. Manufacturing activity grew strongly, with significant gains in new orders and shipments. Delivery times lengthened slightly, while supply availability worsened and inventories expanded. Employment increased slightly, and workweeks lengthened. Price increases remained high, but pace slowed. Future business condition optimism fell, with the index dropping to 19.1 from 30.3.
• The European Commission increased its Eurozone 2025 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.9%, expecting 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, driven by strong exports and investments. Germany is forecasted to grow 0.2% in 2025, rising to 1.2% thereafter. France is expected to grow 0.7% in 2025, then 0.9% and 1.1%. Spain will lead with 2.9% growth in 2025, followed by 2.3% and 2.0%. Italy is set to grow 0.4% in 2025 and 0.8% in the following years.
• Switzerland's economy contracted by 0.5% in Q3 2025, reversing the 0.1% growth from the previous quarter, due to the 39% US tariff in August. A recent deal lowering the tariff to 15% may aid recovery. The contraction was mainly due to declines in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, with slower growth in services.
• Hassett told CNBC that real wages have risen and will keep increasing. Despite mixed job market signals, the outlook is positive, with a potential period of relative quiet in the labor market.

  Equities: 

• US - US stocks opened sharply lower Monday as investors braced for delayed economic data and key tech earnings. The Dow fell 1.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.8% and 0.7%. Big tech led declines, with Nvidia down 1.9% ahead of Wednesday’s pivotal results, testing AI-driven valuations. Broader selling hit large caps as rate-cut expectations shifted—Fed funds futures now price a 40–45% chance of a December cut—heightening focus on upcoming jobs data. Alphabet bucked the trend, rising 3% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a multibillion-dollar stake, signaling selective bargain hunting amid the selloff.
• EU - European stocks extended losses Monday, with the STOXX 50 down 0.6% and STOXX 600 off 0.4%, continuing last week’s decline as traders awaited key catalysts including Nvidia’s earnings and delayed US data releases. Financials, insurers, and luxury names led the drop: Burberry fell over 4%, Worldline 4.2%, Adyen 3%, while Siemens, Inditex, Bayer, and LVMH lost 1.6%–2.1%. On the upside, SAAB surged 7% after securing a €3.1B Gripen jet deal with Colombia, and Airbus gained 1.3% amid reports it may win a major Flydubai order.
• HK - Hong Kong stocks fell 195 points (0.7%) to 26,377 Monday morning, marking a second straight loss and the lowest level in a week amid broad sector weakness. Sentiment stayed cautious after China’s October data showed the slowest growth in industrial output and retail sales in 14 months, while investors awaited loan prime rate fixings later this week following the PBoC’s decision to keep rates at record lows. Xpeng ADR fell 8% after it reported earnings that showed losses narrowed to the smallest in 5 years as revenue surged 101% but Q4 revenue forecast did not meet expectations.

• Tuesday

  US: Home Depot; Asia: Xiaomi, Trip.com, PDD Holdings, NetEase, Baidu

• Wednesday

  US: Nvidia, Palo Alto, Lowe’s, Target, Viking; Asia: Kuaishou, Lenovo, ZTO Express, Tokio Marine, SOMPO, MS&AD Insurance

• Thursday

  US: Walmart, Warner Music Group, Intuit; Asia: Webull

• Friday

  US: BJ’s Wholesale Club; Asia: Meituan

FX:

• The dollar strengthened against all Group-of-10 currencies, marking its best day in two weeks ahead of Thursday's delayed jobs report.
• USDCAD rose 0.2% to 1.4050, as Canada's inflation cooled less than expected, backing the Bank of Canada's pause on rate cuts.
• GBPUSD dipped 0.1% to 1.3154 amid anticipation of next week's budget announcements.
• USDJPY increased 0.4% to 155.22 after Japan's Q3 economic contraction, supporting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's push for a large stimulus package.
• EURUSD fell 0.3% to 1.1588, and EURJPY hit a record high over 180 before retreating.

Commodities:

• Oil prices steadied as investors evaluated the impact of a growing surplus amid US sanctions on Russia, which have disrupted some crude flows. WTI stayed below $60 a barrel, while Brent closed near $64. Russia's flagship crude price has plummeted to its lowest level in over two years, just days before US sanctions target major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.
• Gold edged up 0.1% to $4,049.21 stabilizing after three days of losses driven by waning hopes for a US interest rate cut next month. Bullion remained above $4,000, with several Federal Reserve officials cautioning against lowering borrowing costs amid data delays from the recent US government shutdown. Silver and platinum were flat, while palladium edged higher.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries held modest gains in late US afternoon trading as the market awaited Amazon's $15 billion six-part bond offering, the year's fifth-largest new issue. Gains in the UK bond market initially supported Treasuries after Chancellor Rachel Reeves rolled back a planned income-tax hike. However, Treasuries retreated from their morning highs following Amazon's announcement, as the offering joined 10 corporate bond sales totaling $26.3 billion. Amazon's bonds drew about $80 billion in orders, insiders report.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.