Asia Market Quick Take – 30 June, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US Iran heads to Doha but meeting is uncertain
• Equities: Alphabet jumped 4.8%, leading the Dow in its index debut
• FX: Dollar broadly stronger; yen near four-decade lows, sterling leads G10 gains
• Commodities: Gold toward $4,000, on track for worst month since June 2013
• Fixed income: German Bunds fell, ending a five-day streak; Treasuries were mixed.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• A top Iranian official reaffirmed Tehran’s resolve to control the Strait of Hormuz, keeping geopolitical risks elevated before the talks. Tehran has also ruled out any negotiations at any level with the American side on Tuesday.
• Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% m/m in May, matching April but below the 1.1% forecast, amid Middle East–related supply and energy risks. It was the second monthly gain, with strength in transport equipment, chemicals, and petroleum and coal products offset by weaker machinery and electronics. Output fell 1.7% y/y, the first decline in six months.
• Japan’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5% in May 2026, matching forecasts and remaining the lowest since July 2025. Employment hit a record high and participation improved, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio slipped slightly to 1.17, indicating a still-tight but softening labor market.
• The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing activity index was flat in June 2026, but outlooks improved, uncertainty eased, hiring and hours picked up, and price pressures were mixed. Firms remained optimistic, with the future activity index rising despite a slight dip in the future production index.
• Andy Burnham, to succeed Keir Starmer, pledged to devolve major fiscal powers from Westminster to local authorities while maintaining discipline, calling the imbalance between national and local resources a barrier to growth. He said he will name ministers only after the Labour leadership race ends.
• UK shop price inflation stayed at 1.2% y/y in June 2026, just under the 1.3% forecast, as food inflation fell to 2.4%—its lowest since March 2025—while non-food inflation inched up to 0.6%. The BRC cautioned that retailers still face rising costs from taxes, weather, and geopolitical tensions.

Equities: 

• US — US equities rebounded sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to 7,440.43, the Nasdaq 100 surging 2.3%, and the Dow Jones topping 52,000 for the first time, closing at 52,182.74. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 3.8%. Alphabet led the Dow, gaining 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component. Corning surged 15.7% to a record high. Super Micro Computer fell 8.1% following a raid on its Taiwan offices as authorities investigate the alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips into China. After hours, Concentrix tumbled 25% after slashing its full-year outlook, while AeroVironment jumped ~19% on a strong Q4 beat and raised revenue guidance.
• EU — European equities were broadly flat on Monday. The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.04%, the DAX fell 0.2% to 24,626.89, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.2% to 10,484.22, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.16%, and the SMI gained 0.4%. Telecom stocks were the notable laggard, with Deutsche Telekom sliding more than 5% on fears that SpaceX could disrupt the mobile market. Bridgepoint surged 15-16% after announcing the acquisition of Kayne Anderson Real Estate. ASML rose 2.1%, leading the tech sector. Heidelberg Materials fell 9.4% after analysts cut Q2 revenue estimates.
• Asia — Asian equities are broadly higher on Tuesday, the final trading day of a quarter in which the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained approximately 20% — its best quarterly performance in 17 years. The Nikkei is up 1.4% to 70,448 in early trade, led by electronics and metals stocks including Keyence (+4.1%) and Fujikura (+5.1%). On Monday, the Hang Seng rose 1.6% to 23,026.68, led by Alibaba (+3.9%) and CSPC Pharmaceutical (+6.9%), as the US-Iran ceasefire eased Strait of Hormuz concerns. The Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded as much as 4.1% from oversold levels, with Horizon Robotics surging 15% and Bilibili up 8.8%. The Kospi was volatile on Monday, with Samsung and SK Hynix initially falling more than 6% before recovering after both companies unveiled major new chipmaking investment plans. The CSI 300 climbed 1.2% on Monday. The STI and Kospi are tracking higher in early Tuesday trade.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday - Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software, Hagar
• Wednesday - General Mills, FactSet Research Systems
• Friday – US market closed

FX:

• Overnight FX saw a modestly stronger USD, led by losses in commodity and risk-sensitive currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up about 0.1%, reflecting generalized dollar strength.
• USDJPY briefly hit 161.98 — its weakest since 1986 and above last year’s intervention line — before steadying near 161.90, keeping markets alert for possible MOF action. Wide US–Japan rate differentials still favor the dollar, with 164–165 the next technical focus.
• GBP was Monday’s top G10 performer, gaining 0.29% against the USD, supported by relative risk-on sentiment and steady UK macro fundamentals.
• EUR softened toward 1.14 as fading ECB tightening expectations weigh on EURUSD.
• AUD is steady around 0.6889 ahead of the RBA’s June minutes at 11:30 a.m. Sydney; it is down 4.1% this month, set for its biggest fall since Dec 2024 as hike bets fade.
• USDCNY was fixed at 6.8175 Monday, with spot near 6.7918. China’s strong-FX stance is squeezing some exporters, while the EU–China trade dispute stays in focus ahead of an October deadline for de-escalation.

Commodities:

• Gold fell as much as 2.2% toward $4,000 an ounce before paring losses to settle near $4,020, as the US-Iran ceasefire reduced safe-haven demand. Gold is on track for its worst month since June 2013, down more than $500 an ounce in June alone, and heading for a record quarterly decline of over $625 per ounce in Q2.
• Brent crude rose approximately 1.1% to around $72.78 amid mixed signals ahead of the US-Iran Doha talks. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 2026 Dated Brent forecast by $15 to $75/bbl, citing faster-than-expected return of Hormuz flows, strong US supply, and weak Chinese demand. Further declines to $70/bbl are forecast by Q3 2027.
• Copper slipped 0.6% to $13,278.50/mt in London as traders awaited the Iran peace talks outcome and assessed the hawkish Fed outlook. The metal is down 2.6% this month. A Commerce Department deadline today on a potential 15% tariff on refined copper imports adds near-term uncertainty to the market.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries ended narrowly mixed with the curve flatter. Front-end yields rose approximately 1bp, while the 20- and 30-year sectors were slightly richer. The 10-year yield was little changed at around 4.37%, and the 30-year fell 1bp to 4.857%. The 2s10s spread tightened. JPMorgan warns the 10-year is trading 27bp below model-implied fair value, with Thursday's payrolls data seen as a key risk event for further tightening repricing.
• Demand for Monday's 3-month bill auction was the weakest since 2024, with buyers taking the smallest share in over 18 months. The Treasury sold $92 billion of 3-month bills at 3.74% — the highest stopout rate since November — and $72 billion of 6-month bills at 3.84%, amid uncertainty over the Fed's policy path and a record auction size.
• German Bunds fell, snapping a five-day run of gains, as energy prices picked up ahead of the resumption of US-Iran peace talks. Markets are now pricing approximately 26bp of ECB rate hikes by year-end, up from 24bp on Friday. French and German CPI data, due Tuesday, are forecast to show a slowdown in June inflation.

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