Asia Market Quick Take – 13 April, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump announces blockade of SoH after talks collapse
• Equities: Asian stocks slide broadly as US–Iran talks collapse and Washington orders Hormuz blockade
• FX: Dollar strengthens broadly as oil surges, risk-off sentiment hits importers’ currencies
• Commodities: Trump’s Hormuz blockade order spikes oil and gas
• Fixed income: Rising oil-driven inflation fears push Treasury yields higher

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran collapsed. From 10 a.m. Eastern, ships entering or leaving Iranian ports will face restrictions. The US says Iran refused to curb its nuclear program, while Iran sought control of the strait, reparations, a wider ceasefire, and access to frozen assets.
• The shutdown of the key shipping route has driven energy prices sharply higher, boosting inflation risks and expectations of delayed or tighter central-bank policy.
• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sank 11% to a record low of 47.6 in early April 2026, well below expectations of 52 and 9% under last year. With most surveys taken before the cease-fire, the Iran conflict’s impact was clear. Sentiment fell across all groups: one-year business expectations dropped 20%, personal finances 11%, and buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%, and long-term expectations rose to 3.4%.
• US inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest since May 2024 and up from 2.4% in January and February, driven by a 12.5% jump in energy costs tied to the Iran war. Gasoline climbed 18.9% and fuel oil 44.2%, while used-car prices fell 3.2%, shelter held at 3%, and food eased to 2.7%. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, the biggest gain since June 2022, led by a 21.2% gas surge. Core inflation reached 2.6% year over year, with core prices up 0.2% on the month.
• US core consumer prices rose 0.2% in March 2026, matching February and slightly below the expected 0.3%. Transportation services climbed 0.6%, reflecting indirect effects of higher energy prices after war-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Equities: 

• US - On Friday, US stocks halted their rally after the S&P 500 posted its best week since November, slipping 0.1% to close at 6,816.89 as traders braced for weekend US-Iran talks. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.35% to 22,902.89, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains and largest weekly advance since November 2025, up 4.68%. The Dow fell 0.6%. Intel was the best performer during the S&P 500's seven-day winning streak, surging 50%. SanDisk advanced after being selected to join the Nasdaq-100 Index, replacing Atlassian. Palo Alto Networks dropped nearly 8%, its largest decline since February 2024. Fair Isaac fell over 12% to its lowest close since November 2023. In after-hours trading Friday, Allogene Therapeutics gained 14% on trial data news.
• EU - European stocks extended their advance on Friday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbing 0.4% to 614.84, reaching its highest closing level since March 2. ASML Holding led gains, rising 2.9%, while Raiffeisen Bank International surged 10.7% on progress toward a Ukraine peace deal. The DAX was little changed at 23,803.95, while the FTSE 100 edged down 0.03% to 10,600.53. The SMI rose 0.2% to 13,183.28. Holcim climbed after Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas raised recommendations. Sodexo plunged 13% after cutting guidance amid an uncertain external environment. For the week, the Stoxx 600 gained, supported by hopes for Middle East peace.
• Asia: Asian markets opened Monday with sharp declines following President Trump's announcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Nikkei 225 fell approximately 1% at the open, while the Kospi dropped nearly 2.1% to 5,737.28 as fuel supply shock concerns weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.8%. Singapore's Straits Times Index has proven resilient, nearing record highs and suffering the least in the region since the Iran war outbreak in late February, benefiting from haven status. On Friday, Asian stocks had posted their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 6% for the week. The Kospi surged 9% for the week ending Friday, led by electronics stocks including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Earnings this week:

Monday: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson
Wednesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, CATL
Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Moutai

FX:

• USD is broadly stronger this Monday, benefiting from risk-off sentiment after US–Iran peace talks collapsed and Washington moved to blockade Iranian ports.
• EUR gained 1.78% to $1.1726 for the week ending Friday, the largest one-week percentage gain since Friday, January 23, 2026. EUR was up for five straight sessions, gaining 1.78% over the last five sessions.
• JPY has become the worst performing G10 currency in the year to date. It is down 1.61% against the US dollar, trading at 159.27 against USD. USD lost 0.23% to 159.29 yen for the week ending Friday.
• AUD led declines among risk-sensitive currencies against the dollar in early Asian trading Monday following the collapse of US-Iran talks and the announcement of the Hormuz blockade. NZD is also under pressure, keeping NZDUSD in the red above 0.58.

Commodities:

• Oil surged and US equity futures slid after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran following the collapse of peace talks. Global benchmark Brent crude gained almost 8% and European natural gas futures jumped as much as 17% in early trading. Front-month WTI crude oil futures rose 8.3% to $104.56 per barrel, while front-month Brent crude oil futures rose 7.6% to $102.42 per barrel.
• Spot gold fell 1.9% to $4,658.65 per ounce in early Monday trading as the dollar strengthened and investors rotated out of safe-haven positions following the escalation of US-Iran tensions.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries fell as quickening inflation stemming from the US war on Iran eroded wagers that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once this year. The 10-year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.315% on Friday, while the 30-year yield rose 2.9 basis points to 4.912%. The 30-year yield rose 0.009 percentage point to 4.914% for the week.
• Treasury futures and Australian bonds fell on Monday as the US's plan to block the Strait of Hormuz triggered a jump in oil prices and lifted inflation fears. Treasury 10-year note futures declined 10/32 to 110 25/32. The yield on Australia's 3-year note rose 8 basis points to 4.73% while that on the 10-year bond climbed 7 basis points to 5.04%.

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