Technical Update: US Treasuries breaking strong support levels. Shoulder Head Shoulder patterns unfolding
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: US Treasuries have broken important support levels across the board. Longer term Shoulder-Head-Shoulder top and reversal patterns confirmed indicating much lower levels
US 10 years T-Note has broken strong support at 127 29/32 – with ease. On the weekly the time period the future is well below 200 SMA , RSI has broken the rising trend line. Currently there is divergence as the RSI was lower in March 2021 indicating divergence but further selling can take that level out.
Some support at around 126 22/32 .
The 200 SMA and the long term rising trend line on the monthly time period will offer some support but it is a bit far away coming up around 125. RSI on Monthly chart is below 40 threshold indicating bearish sentiment.
After breaking bearish out of the symmetrical triangle the US T-Bond is now testing support at around USD153. If the bond closes the week below there is no strong support before 144.
144 is also around the 138.2% projection of the Shoulder-Head-shoulder pattern currently unfolding.
US Ultra T-Bond
The US Ultra T-Bond has broken below support at 187 15/32. Next strong support is at around 180 15/32 which is also the Neckline int eh Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. The Ultra T-bond ahs broken the longer term rising trend line indicating a test of the 180 15/32 support is likely
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.