19chartM

Verisure’s blockbuster debut gives Europe’s IPO market a much-needed jolt

Jacob Falkencrone 400x400
Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Key points:

 
  • A market reopening signal: Verisure’s EUR 3.2 billion listing, Europe’s biggest in three years, shows investors are again rewarding quality, cash-generating businesses.
  • Execution is now the test: The firm’s ability to cut debt, integrate ADT Mexico and sustain subscriber growth will determine whether the strong debut holds.
  • For investors, patience beats FOMO: IPO pops grab headlines, but lasting returns depend on watching key metrics, not day-one excitement.

When a home-security firm can revive Europe’s dormant IPO market, it says something about shifting sentiment. Verisure’s Nasdaq Stockholm debut, up more than 20% on day one, did not just reward early buyers, it signalled that investors may again pay a premium for predictable earnings after years of hype and volatility.

The company raised EUR 3.2 billion, valuing it near EUR 14 billion, Sweden’s largest float in 25 years and Europe’s biggest since 2022. The offering drew more than 500 institutional orders, heavily oversubscribed by double-digit multiples, with cornerstone commitments from GIC, Alecta, AMF, and AP3. Shares climbed from EUR 13.25 to roughly EUR 16, underscoring appetite for growth with visibility.

A standard overallotment option will stabilise trading, while lock-ups keep extra supply off the market until next year. Near-term liquidity looks manageable, but the real test comes once stabilisation ends and fundamentals take centre stage.

The business and the timing

Founded in Sweden in 1988 as Securitas Direct, Verisure has grown into one of the world’s largest monitored-alarm and smart-home providers. It serves five million customers across 17 markets in Europe and Latin America. The model is simple: install the system, charge an upfront fee, then collect recurring subscription revenues for 24/7 monitoring and emergency response.

That subscription base, with sticky contracts, low churn and predictable cash flow, has made Verisure a quiet giant. Private-equity owner Hellman & Friedman, which bought control in 2011, has turned a EUR 2 billion investment into a multi-billion-euro success and retains a majority stake after the IPO.

After two years of thin issuance, the timing was ideal. Cooling inflation and steady rate expectations lifted demand for companies offering recurring income. Stockholm, with its deep pension-fund base and efficient listing process, proved the perfect stage. Sweden has quietly become Europe’s most effective IPO hub, a blend of local loyalty and global capital that consistently delivers disciplined listings.

What investors see, and what they will be watching

Verisure fits the moment: a profitable, subscription-driven business that generates cash, pays down debt and grows steadily rather than spectacularly. Revenues climbed about 10% in the first half of 2025, and IPO proceeds will fund deleveraging and the ADT Mexico acquisition, expanding its Latin-American footprint.

The next year will show whether Verisure can turn enthusiasm into endurance. Key metrics to watch: subscriber growth, churn, average revenue per user, free-cash-flow generation, and the pace of deleveraging. If trading volumes stay firm, the stock could later qualify for index inclusion, attracting passive inflows and steadier liquidity.

Still, risks linger. Debt remains high, rising financing costs could squeeze margins, and competition from DIY and Big-Tech devices like Google Nest and Amazon Ring is intensifying. As a security provider handling personal data, Verisure also faces strict privacy and compliance rules.

What it means for Europe’s IPO market

Verisure’s success sends a welcome signal through Europe’s subdued equity market. Issuance has been thin since 2022, with uncertainty and higher funding costs deterring listings. The Nordic region stands out: Sweden hosts nearly a thousand public companies, more than France or Germany, supported by strong domestic demand and an agile listing framework.

Strong debuts like Verisure’s, following Noba Bank and ahead of Shawbrook Bank and Visma, may tempt others to follow. Investors are shifting from speculative growth stories toward proven, cash-generating firms, and Verisure fits that shift perfectly.

Beyond the pop: how to approach Verisure and future IPOs

For investors, the lessons are clear:

  1. Don’t chase the pop. Day-one surges often reflect pent-up demand; long-term value will hinge on fundamentals.
  2. Track the key data. Subscriber growth, churn and cash conversion reveal whether Verisure is delivering.
  3. Watch the balance sheet. Deleveraging is central to the story; any backsliding will be noticed.
  4. Use IPOs as sentiment gauges. Big, successful floats often hint at broader shifts in market appetite.
  5. Stay patient. Wait for the first earnings release before deciding whether to invest.

Verisure’s debut delivered more than a successful float. It gave investors a reason to believe Europe’s IPO window is not permanently shut. The appetite for high-quality, cash-generating names is clearly back.

Whether this marks a full reopening or a lone bright spot will depend on how the story unfolds in coming quarters. For now, Verisure has proved that Europe’s IPO market still rewards solid fundamentals and simple stories.

 

 


This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.