Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: After positing 52 week new lows on one of the first trading days of the new year, Tesla and Apple have rebounded strongly.
Tesla earnings lifted the share price higher reversing the bearish sentiment short term
Apple broke falling trend line now facing key resistance
Tesla has had a great run in the new year after the share price started the new year by dipping below strong support at around 110 almost touching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (just short with a couple of dollars) – see weekly chart. Since then Tesla has bounced strongly and the bounce seems to continue.
Tesla is closing in on the 200 weekly SMA. If closing above there could be more upside for Tesla with no strong resistance until around 182.50. That level is also the 0.382 retracement of the Q4 2022 downtrend.
The medium-term trend is still down however, and Tesla needs to close above 198.92 to reverse that.
If Tesla closes the gap created with yesterday’s jump i.e., closing below 144.43 sellers are likely to regain control and push Tesla share price towards 100 again.
Apple trading in a narrow rising channel has broken above its medium-term falling trendline. RSI is above 60 showing positive sentiment but traded volume has been declining during bounce here in January. That is a bit of a worry for further upside potential.
Key resistance is at around 150. Daily 200 SMA coming down just below that level will add to the resistance. If closing above 150 a move to 157.50 – 164.25 could be seen.
If Apple breaks bearish out of the channel and closes below 133.77 the medium-term downtrend is likely to resume with new lows in Apple as a result. Possibly down to strong support at around 118.37
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.