Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P 500 bounced in late session yesterday from support at around 3,900. The bounce could continue a couple of days up to around the 0.382 retracement of the past two weeks sell-off at around 4,064 before bear trend is likely to resume.
A close below 3,900 is likely to fuel another sell off down to June lows around 3,636. Support at around the 0.764 retracement and at 3,738.
RSI is below 40 threshold indicating lower levels. But needs to be confirmed with an Index close below 3,900.
A close above 4,305 will demolish this bearish picture. A possible scenario is indicated by arrows on the chart
Nasdaq 100 bounce yesterday to close above key support at 12,046. A bounce to around the 0.382 retracement of the past two weeks selling at around 12,665 is likely. However, a close below 12K and the bear trend will resume pushing Nasdaq 100 down to test June lows at around 11,037.
A close above 13,176 will demolish this bearish picture – at least short term.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.