Investment Strategist
CSG’s record defence IPO is a confidence signal: investors still pay up for clear stories when markets feel calm.
Europe’s 2026 IPO pipeline looks broader than last year, with defence, technology, telecom and consumer-facing names lining up.
Volatility is still the bouncer at the door. If it stays quiet, the “spring window” could turn into a real reopening.
Europe’s IPO market has spent the last couple of years in “maybe later” mode. Then CSG showed up, raised a record €3.8 billion in Amsterdam, and traded around 31% above the offer price after day two. That is not a guarantee of a full revival. It is something almost as valuable: a reminder that investors still like new listings, as long as the price looks sensible and the market mood is not panicking.
Think of IPOs like restaurant openings. If the first new place in town is packed and the reviews are good, other chefs suddenly find their courage. CSG’s deal does not just put one stock on the map. It improves the odds that more companies stop circling and start filing.
An IPO (initial public offering) is a confidence trade. A company sells shares to the public, and investors decide whether the price feels fair and the future feels believable. When that works, it creates momentum. When it fails, it closes the door for everyone else.
CSG’s early jump matters because it resets expectations in two directions.
First, it tells other would-be issuers that Europe can still absorb a large deal. That is not a small point. Big IPOs need both demand and trust, and trust is easier to find when equity markets are steady and investors are not hiding in cash.
Second, it tells investors that there can still be upside in fresh listings, even after a long drought. Many investors have been trained to see IPOs as “expensive on day one, cheaper later”. CSG is not proof that this is wrong. It is proof that the market can still reward deals that arrive with a clear narrative and a valuation that does not ask for miracles.
The chart below helps put the bigger picture in context. 2021 was the high-water mark. Then activity cooled sharply. Entering 2026, the tone looks firmer again, with both deal count and proceeds showing signs of life. The direction matters more than the exact number: the market is trying to rebuild confidence, one deal at a time.
Defence is the obvious headline, and it is not a small one. Europe has multi-year spending plans, capacity constraints and rearmament priorities that do not disappear because the calendar changes. That backdrop makes defence companies easier to pitch to public investors than, say, a “growth story” that still needs perfect conditions.
Bloomberg reports that tank maker KNDS is preparing a Frankfurt and Paris listing as soon as June or July, with an indicative valuation around €25 billion. If that comes to market, it would be a “second act” after CSG, and it would test whether investors want more of the theme or just liked the first ticket.
But the more important signal is variety. A healthy IPO market cannot run on one theme forever. It needs different sectors, different countries, and different types of stories.
Bloomberg also highlights several non-defence candidates that could become meaningful European deals in 2026. Business software provider Visma is reported to have provisionally selected London for a major listing, though timing may depend on how software peers trade. Dutch mobile network Odido is reported to be preparing a local IPO that could raise about €1 billion or more. Crypto broker Bitpanda is reported to be planning a Frankfurt listing in the first half that could value it as high as €5 billion.
Other names reported to be exploring 2026 listings include TK Elevator, airline caterer Gategroup, Uzbek gold miner Navoi Mining & Metallurgical, and a longer tail of mid-size candidates across industries and countries.
In plain terms: the queue is getting longer, and the menu is getting more interesting.
There is also a timing angle that often matters more than it should. With the US midterm elections expected to narrow the listing window later in the year, some issuers prefer to come earlier, when attention spans are longer and risk budgets feel fresher. IPO markets are seasonal even when nobody wants to admit it. “Spring window” is a real thing.
Every IPO pitch deck includes a polite line that says: “timing is subject to market conditions”. Translate that as: “please do not let volatility ruin our day”.
The VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) is a widely watched gauge of equity market stress. Bloomberg notes that a VIX level under 20 is often seen as a sweet spot for launching IPOs. When volatility spikes, investors demand more discount, and issuers hesitate because they do not want to sell shares at a price that looks “cheap” in six months.
IPO outcomes are not only about the company. They are also about the moment.
This also explains why an IPO pipeline can look full on paper and then arrive in small waves. The deals do not vanish. They wait for the weather to improve.
Treat IPOs as optional, not urgent. Most investors can build wealth without ever buying a stock on listing day. That said, IPOs can offer good entry points when pricing is fair and the business is high quality.
A simple way to approach it:
The first risk is a macro shock. Tariff headlines, geopolitics, or a sharp move in rates can close the IPO window quickly. When markets get nervous, investors do not ask “what is the growth story”. They ask “where is the exit”.
The second risk is valuation discipline. A strong first-day move can encourage issuers to push for aggressive pricing. If too many deals come too fast, or valuations stretch, demand can fade. IPO booms rarely end because investors stop liking new companies. They end because prices stop offering a margin of safety.
The third risk is simple crowding. If several large deals hit the market close together, investors may have limited capacity. Even good deals can suffer if everyone tries to list on the same week.
Europe’s IPO market is not “back” because one stock pops. But CSG is a useful spark. It shows that, when the story is clear and volatility behaves, investors still show up with real money.
The 2026 pipeline looks deeper and more diverse than last year, which is exactly what a recovery needs. The watch item is simple: the market’s mood. If volatility stays quiet, more issuers try to list before summer and investors get more fresh names to choose from. If volatility flares up, the IPO market reaches for the snooze button, and Europe is back to “maybe later”.
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