CSG lights the fuse for Europe’s IPO comeback

The 2026 pipeline looks deeper, and not just in defence

Defence is the obvious headline, and it is not a small one. Europe has multi-year spending plans, capacity constraints and rearmament priorities that do not disappear because the calendar changes. That backdrop makes defence companies easier to pitch to public investors than, say, a “growth story” that still needs perfect conditions.

Bloomberg reports that tank maker KNDS is preparing a Frankfurt and Paris listing as soon as June or July, with an indicative valuation around €25 billion. If that comes to market, it would be a “second act” after CSG, and it would test whether investors want more of the theme or just liked the first ticket.

But the more important signal is variety. A healthy IPO market cannot run on one theme forever. It needs different sectors, different countries, and different types of stories.

Bloomberg also highlights several non-defence candidates that could become meaningful European deals in 2026. Business software provider Visma is reported to have provisionally selected London for a major listing, though timing may depend on how software peers trade. Dutch mobile network Odido is reported to be preparing a local IPO that could raise about €1 billion or more. Crypto broker Bitpanda is reported to be planning a Frankfurt listing in the first half that could value it as high as €5 billion.

Other names reported to be exploring 2026 listings include TK Elevator, airline caterer Gategroup, Uzbek gold miner Navoi Mining & Metallurgical, and a longer tail of mid-size candidates across industries and countries.

In plain terms: the queue is getting longer, and the menu is getting more interesting.

There is also a timing angle that often matters more than it should. With the US midterm elections expected to narrow the listing window later in the year, some issuers prefer to come earlier, when attention spans are longer and risk budgets feel fresher. IPO markets are seasonal even when nobody wants to admit it. “Spring window” is a real thing.

The bouncer is volatility, and it checks everyone’s ID

Every IPO pitch deck includes a polite line that says: “timing is subject to market conditions”. Translate that as: “please do not let volatility ruin our day”.

The VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) is a widely watched gauge of equity market stress. Bloomberg notes that a VIX level under 20 is often seen as a sweet spot for launching IPOs. When volatility spikes, investors demand more discount, and issuers hesitate because they do not want to sell shares at a price that looks “cheap” in six months.

IPO outcomes are not only about the company. They are also about the moment.

• In nervous markets, even a good business can get a bad reception because investors do not want new risk.
• In calmer markets, investors become more willing to pay for growth, themes and future promises.

This also explains why an IPO pipeline can look full on paper and then arrive in small waves. The deals do not vanish. They wait for the weather to improve.

Investor playbook: how to think about IPOs without the fear of missing out

Treat IPOs as optional, not urgent. Most investors can build wealth without ever buying a stock on listing day. That said, IPOs can offer good entry points when pricing is fair and the business is high quality.

A simple way to approach it:

• Focus on the business first. New listing, old rule: durable cash flows, sensible debt, and a clear path to returns.
• Respect the “aftermarket”. Watching how the first cohort trades after a few weeks can tell you whether the window is truly open.
• Keep position sizes modest. New stocks can swing as the market discovers the right price.
• If you like the theme but not single-stock risk, consider diversified exposure rather than betting everything on one new name.

Risks: what could kill the momentum

The first risk is a macro shock. Tariff headlines, geopolitics, or a sharp move in rates can close the IPO window quickly. When markets get nervous, investors do not ask “what is the growth story”. They ask “where is the exit”.

The second risk is valuation discipline. A strong first-day move can encourage issuers to push for aggressive pricing. If too many deals come too fast, or valuations stretch, demand can fade. IPO booms rarely end because investors stop liking new companies. They end because prices stop offering a margin of safety.

The third risk is simple crowding. If several large deals hit the market close together, investors may have limited capacity. Even good deals can suffer if everyone tries to list on the same week.

The fuse is lit, but the room still needs calm air

Europe’s IPO market is not “back” because one stock pops. But CSG is a useful spark. It shows that, when the story is clear and volatility behaves, investors still show up with real money.

The 2026 pipeline looks deeper and more diverse than last year, which is exactly what a recovery needs. The watch item is simple: the market’s mood. If volatility stays quiet, more issuers try to list before summer and investors get more fresh names to choose from. If volatility flares up, the IPO market reaches for the snooze button, and Europe is back to “maybe later”.