Cryptocurrency Analyst
Summary: The crypto volume against the Russian ruble has tumbled since the first sanctions in late February, highlighting that crypto is not being used much to evade sanctions. What has also tumbled this month are non-fungible tokens volume and floor prices, showing that they are not insensible to global uncertainties.
Russian crypto volume tumbles
For the past weeks, there has been speculation that crypto would be a means for Russia to evade Western sanctions. As we see it, it is unlikely that Russia can seriously evade sanctions using cryptocurrencies due to several reasons namely that carrying out the sanctioned activity with crypto as the medium of exchange instead of fiat does not suddenly make the activity legal. Nevertheless, if one is utilizing cryptocurrencies to bypass sanctions, it should be quite easy to identify and stop it due to the public nature of cryptocurrencies. One more reason is that the Russian crypto market is somewhat illiquid, making it challenging to bypass sanctions to a large degree.
What originally fueled the speculation of the evasion of sanctions using crypto was increased crypto trading against the ruble following the new sanctions in late February. On the 24th of February, Russian volume peaked with crypto worth $70.7mn traded against the ruble. In the first place, this is not much considering the size of Russia. On Thursday last week, the volume was reduced by half with $34.1mn traded against the ruble on that day. In our opinion, this indicates an illiquid market not presently able to facilitate notable evasion of sanctions, no matter whether we are talking $70.7mn or $34.1mn in volume a day.
NFT prices and volume plunges
The crypto trend of 2021 namely non-fungible tokens (NFTs) extended well into January beating the prior all-time high-volume set in August 2021 on the largest NFT marketplace OpenSea with a January volume of $5bn. However, some fatigue started to spread in the NFT market in February, as almost $1.5bn was cut off OpenSea’s monthly volume. When February became March, it seems the February sentiment was likewise carried over to March. The OpenSea volume has solely been slightly more than $400mn month to date, on average around $70mn a day, from an average of $127mn in February. Simultaneously, the floor price has tumbled in Ether across the most popular NFT series such as Bored Ape Yacht Club. With Ether tumbling in USD in March as well, the fatigue in the NFT market has been intensified, indicating that the NFT market is not insensible to global uncertainties on this scale.
‘Crypto Nation’ Switzerland expands
Switzerland has for years been a country with a high concentration of crypto companies and projects. Ethereum was founded in the city of Zug, Switzerland, and the foundation of Ethereum, Polkadot, and Cardano also operate out of Zug, which has been known as Crypto Valley. Another Swiss city now wants to compete domestically with Zug namely Lugano. The city of Lugano plans to make Bitcoin, the largest stablecoin Tether, and the CHF stablecoin LVGA ‘de facto’ legal tender in the city as part of its Plan B in collaboration with Tether. The plan aims to make Lugano a major European blockchain hub.
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.
