Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection

Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection

Commodities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  WTI and Brent Crude oil have been hit with heavy selling of late pushing the black gold through several support levels. But now Crude oil seems like it is finding its floor trying to form bottom and reversal patterns
Dutch and Henry Hub Natural gas range bound after being rejected at key resistance levels

WTI Crude oil took out key support at around 77.21. Next support at around 73.84. However, WTI could be in the process of forming an Evening star like pattern. It is not the best textbook example though, but could still be an indication of a bottom and reversal. For that scenario to play out minimum requirement is for WTI to close higher today.

If WTI is performing a daily close (not necessarily today) back above 78.50 the rebound could extend to 83-84 level

However, RSI is still in negative sentiment with no divergence suggesting lower levels could be seen, and a dip down to 73.84 should not be ruled out.
If WTI is closing below 73.84 no support until around USD67/barrel level

One could argue WTI has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. Ideally both shoulders should be of almost equal height so it is merely a Quasimodo SHS – with two heads!

Nevertheless, WTI has reached 0.618 Fibonacci of the Head to Neckline level at 75.23 which could be the exhaustive downwards move short-term

Medium-term If WTI is closing the week below 77.59 downtrend is confirmed and we could see WTI drop lower to test the falling trend line and to around the 200 weekly Moving Average level i.e., around USD70, possibly lower
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil support at around 78.34. If closing below 78.34 there is no strong support until the lows back in May-June around 72.

Medium-term Brent is in a downtrend that would be further confirmed if Brent is closing below 81.94 on the week
The 0.786 retracement of the entire Q3 bullish move at 77.16 is likely to offer support

If Brent is closing above 81.75 there is short-term upside potential to 84.78 i.e., the 0.382 retracement

Dutch TTF Gas seems range bound between 44.80 and 56.10. Break out is needed for direction. A close below 44.80 Dutch gas is very likely to test the lower rising trendline and the 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages.

A close above 56.10 there is upside potential to 78
Henry Hub Gas. Rejected twice at strong resistance at around 3.63. Henry Hub hovering around the 0.786 retracement the Natural Gas future could find support at the rising 55 Moving Average.
The uptrend is still intact but a close below 2.835 will reverse it. A close below 2.835 a collapse to around 2.50 is likely

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.