Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection

Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil finding floor. Natural gas range bound after rejection

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  WTI and Brent Crude oil have been hit with heavy selling of late pushing the black gold through several support levels. But now Crude oil seems like it is finding its floor trying to form bottom and reversal patterns
Dutch and Henry Hub Natural gas range bound after being rejected at key resistance levels


WTI Crude oil took out key support at around 77.21. Next support at around 73.84. However, WTI could be in the process of forming an Evening star like pattern. It is not the best textbook example though, but could still be an indication of a bottom and reversal. For that scenario to play out minimum requirement is for WTI to close higher today.

If WTI is performing a daily close (not necessarily today) back above 78.50 the rebound could extend to 83-84 level

However, RSI is still in negative sentiment with no divergence suggesting lower levels could be seen, and a dip down to 73.84 should not be ruled out.
If WTI is closing below 73.84 no support until around USD67/barrel level

One could argue WTI has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. Ideally both shoulders should be of almost equal height so it is merely a Quasimodo SHS – with two heads!

Nevertheless, WTI has reached 0.618 Fibonacci of the Head to Neckline level at 75.23 which could be the exhaustive downwards move short-term

Medium-term If WTI is closing the week below 77.59 downtrend is confirmed and we could see WTI drop lower to test the falling trend line and to around the 200 weekly Moving Average level i.e., around USD70, possibly lower
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil support at around 78.34. If closing below 78.34 there is no strong support until the lows back in May-June around 72.

Medium-term Brent is in a downtrend that would be further confirmed if Brent is closing below 81.94 on the week
The 0.786 retracement of the entire Q3 bullish move at 77.16 is likely to offer support

If Brent is closing above 81.75 there is short-term upside potential to 84.78 i.e., the 0.382 retracement

Dutch TTF Gas seems range bound between 44.80 and 56.10. Break out is needed for direction. A close below 44.80 Dutch gas is very likely to test the lower rising trendline and the 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages.

A close above 56.10 there is upside potential to 78
Henry Hub Gas. Rejected twice at strong resistance at around 3.63. Henry Hub hovering around the 0.786 retracement the Natural Gas future could find support at the rising 55 Moving Average.
 
The uptrend is still intact but a close below 2.835 will reverse it. A close below 2.835 a collapse to around 2.50 is likely

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.