Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: In this Metals analysis: Copper, Gold, Silver, Gold/Silver ratio, Platinum and Palladium
359.70 is the key resistance Copper needs to close above to confirm uptrend. An uptrend that could take Copper to the 0.618 retracement around 400. However, the steep declining 55 SMA will provide resistance meaning it probably won’t be s moth rise.
If Copper fails to confirm uptrend and sellers regain control, downtrend will resume with a close below 341.60. First indication of that scenario to play out is likely to be RSI breaking below its rising trendline
Gold XAUUSD is struggling to get above the falling trendline and the 55 SMA. XAUUSD has closed above key resistance at 1,780 but doesn’t seem to be able to get further traction. However, XAUUSD has closed above upper Bollinger bands which are expanding indicating foundation for an uptrend. An uptrend that is likely to move to the 200 and 100 SMA’s but could shoot up to the key resistance at around 1,876.
If XAUUSD drops back below 1,754 the trend has reversed a 1,680 support is likely to come back in play.
Silver XAGUSD closed yesterday above key resistance at 20.45. Combined with RSI above 60 uptrend is confirmed. An uptrend that is likely to take XAGUSD to the 0.764 retracement at 21.48. Minor resistance at the 0.618 retracement but could have potential to test key strong resistance at around 22.51.
To reverse this bullish scenario a close below 19.50 is needed
Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio: It looks like Silver will outperform Gold. Hovering around the 0.618 retracement the short-term trend is down. Next support at around 85 but a drop to around 82.25 is not unlikely. To reverse the trend a close above 90.26 is needed.
Platinum XPTUSD is trading in a tight rising channel. RSI above 60 and no divergence indicates higher levels are likely. Resistance at 956 and 1,035.
Palladium is trading in a slightly rising channel. Resistance at around 2,307 and strong resistance at around 2,465. If we see a close below 1,983 lower rising trendline is likely to be tested but June lows at around 1,765 is not unlikely to reached too.
There is minor divergence on RSI (last peak is lower than July peak) However, RSI is forming a Ascending triangle like pattern. Breakout could be a strong indication of direction.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.