Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Using Elliott Wave analysis, combined with Fibonacci projections and historic yield and future levels there is strong indications that US 10-year yields could reach 5.25% before exhaustion
Future can decline to 103 20/32
I rarely show Elliot Wave counts on my charts unless they seem quite clear, but looking at the monthly chart of the US 10-year Treasury Future and Yields we can see five clear waves and we seem to be in the 5th exhaustive wave.
Wave 5 should be at least the length of wave 1, that’s roughly where we are now as illustrated by the two vertical arrows, but usually between 1.382 and 1.618 projection of wave 4. That is 105 22/32 and 103 24/32 respectively.
The latter i.e., the 1.618 projection at 103 24/32 is very close to the double bottom low back in 2006-2007.
Yields to 5.25?
The inverse picture of the future, the yields chart (unfortunately, this is just a line chart so we do not have the troughs and peaks but only the closing prices which are less extreme than the closing prices) the yields peaked just around 5.25% back in 2007.
Yields formed a Double Top pattern in 2006-2007 with a base (called a Valley) around 4.43. 10-year yields have surpassed the “base level” and is now in the “Double Top” area with no strong resistance until 5.25 i.e., the Double Top pattern peak.
Monthly RSI is showing divergence as indicated by the horizontal blue line, the current value is below. But if RSI is closing a month (RSI is working with closing prices on the time period) above the horizontal line it would indicate even higher levels than the 5.25%.
Note:It should be noted, however, that wave 5 can move further than the 1.618 projection of wave 4 (on the future) but since we have a Double Bottom(the future)/Double Top pattern back in 2006-2007 I believe that bottom/peak level to be the exhaustive level
Very short-term on the Daily chart yields uptrend is quite stretched but according to the RSI indicator they can move higher. Ther is no divergence i.e., the higher yields are confirmed by higher RSI values.
However, with RSI values being above 75 i.e., in overbought territory a short-term correction should be expected before a likely push higher.
First indication of a correction could be RSI breaking below its risisng blue trnedline possibly combined with a top and reversal pattern on the yields
For Yields to demolish this scenario of a move to 5.25 a close below 4.35 is needed as the technical picture currently is drawn
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