Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Q2 earnings season arrives in waves - banks on 14 July, mega-cap tech 29-31 July - and SPXW weekly options have a specific expiry mapped almost exactly onto each window. This article presents three structures for three views: a defined-cost call spread for bank week, a credit-generating put spread for tech week, and a SKEW-informed risk reversal for the full season.
Earnings season has a schedule. And the schedule is the edge.
JPMorgan reports on 14 July. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup follow on 15 July. Then two weeks of quiet before Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon all report within 72 hours of each other in late July. Three distinct windows – and SPXW and SPY weekly options have a specific expiry for each: July 17, August 7, August 21. None of the structures below require a position in any individual stock.

JPMorgan Chase reports before the open on 14 July; Goldman Sachs and Citigroup follow on 15 July. The SPXW July 17 expiry closes two trading days later. A bull call spread on the index using this expiry is a directional position on how the market absorbs those results – defined maximum loss, no single-stock binary exposure.

Alphabet and Meta are expected to report on 29 July. Microsoft on 30 July. Amazon on 31 July. Technology sector earnings growth for Q2 2026 is projected near 43.6% year-over-year. The CBOE SKEW Index closed at 144.46 on 30 June – elevated put premium relative to equidistant calls. A bull put spread sells that SKEW-inflated premium and defines the maximum loss with a lower-strike put.

VIX closed at 17.65 on 30 June; SKEW closed at 144.46. Out-of-the-money puts are carrying more implied volatility than equidistant calls: the $720 put (3.6% OTM) at roughly 17.09% versus the $775 call (3.8% OTM) at roughly 12.15% – a gap of 4.9 percentage points. A risk reversal sells the more expensive put and funds the call with the proceeds, generating a net credit from that asymmetry.
Important: this is an undefined-risk structure and carries substantially more risk than the two defined-risk strategies above. The short put carries uncapped downside below $720 – unlike strategies 1 and 2, where maximum loss is fixed at entry. The maximum acceptable loss must be set as a hard stop before entry (using stop-loss orders). That stop does not change after the position is on.

Illustrative only. This structure carries no assumption about the direction of the index. It is a view that the index will not fall significantly below $720 by 21 August – and that should a sustained rally materialise, the long call captures it at reduced net cost, funded by the SKEW asymmetry.
Bank earnings open on 14 July. Tech week follows, with Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon reporting 29–31 July. The calendar is public – but the index options market is where that calendar is priced. Selecting the right expiry for the right window converts a public schedule into a structured position.
Options prices and greeks in this article are drawn from live SaxoTrader data captured on 1 July 2026. SPY and SPXW prices reflect the 30 June 2026 close. Prices will differ at the time of reading and at the time of trading – always verify live pricing via your broker before entering any position.
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