Market Quick Take - Investors await the next trigger - 6 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US markets were closed, Europe hit records, Asia rebounded as chips recovered from a sharp sell-off.
• Volatility: Post holiday tech selloff persists, vol curve pricing medium term uncertainty ahead of FOMC minutes and earnings season
• Digital Assets: Crypto steadier than equities overnight, miners slump sharply while Bitcoin ETF outflow streak ends
• Commodities: Gold trades softer, oil holds losses as grains jump on heatwave concerns
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields drift lower after inflation comments and weak jobs report
• Currencies: Broad albeit limited USD strength seen, especially against the yen
• Macro: US June ISM Services

Macro

• The UK Composite PMI fell to 49.3 in June 2026 from 49.7, marking a second month of contraction and missing expectations of 50.6. Services shrank (48.8) while manufacturing grew (52.5). Sales posted their steepest drop since April 2025, and employment declined further. Input and output price inflation eased, and business confidence improved.
• The Eurozone Services PMI rose to 49.4 in June 2026 from 47.7, signaling the mildest downturn since the recent energy shock. New business fell slightly faster, but firms accelerated backlog clearance and returned to hiring amid improved sentiment as energy and borrowing costs eased. Input cost inflation declined for the first time since October.
• In other news, England and Norway will meet in the World Cup quarterfinals in Miami Gardens on Saturday. England advanced after a dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca, while the rowing Norwegians sent Brazil packing with a controlled 2-1 victory in New York. Elsewhere, FIFA sparked fresh controversy after clearing red-carded US star striker Folarin Balogun to face Belgium in Seattle following a phone call from President Donald Trump to FIFA President Gianni Infantino.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – Germany May Factory Orders
• 0900 – Eurozone May PPI, Retail Sales
• 1400 – US June ISM Services

Earnings events

Next week:

• Wednesday: Kongsberg Gruppen
• Thursday: Pepsico, Fast Retailing, Progressive, Cintas, Seven and I Holdings
• Friday: Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Closed.
• Europe: European stocks rose to record highs Friday, with the Euro STOXX 50 up 0.8%, and the STOXX 600 up 0.7% to 653, helped by thinner US-holiday trading and a better macro backdrop. AI-linked tech recovered as ASML gained 3.6% and Infineon rose 1.4%, while Siemens added 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to hold from reduce and raised its price target. Schneider Electric climbed 1.5% on data-centre demand. Deutsche Bank gained 1.6% as lower short-term yields supported banks. Investors now watch whether records can hold once US liquidity returns.
• Asia: Asian markets finished higher Friday after a sharp semiconductor shake-out earlier in the week. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 5.8% to 8,088, rebounding from Thursday’s 7.9% plunge, as SK Hynix rose 10.9% and Samsung Electronics gained 8.2% on renewed AI-chip optimism after reports of talks with Anthropic. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.3% to 23,350, helped by BYD up 6.5% and Zijin Mining up 9.0%, while Japanese stocks also advanced. The next test is whether chip momentum survives fresh concerns about a possible semiconductor peak.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.81 | VIX FUTURES: 17.60 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.02) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL

• Markets reopened Monday after Friday's holiday closure to a stalled tech rebound and firmer dollar. VIX held at 15.81, VIX1D 13.22, VIX9D 12.37, both below the 30 day measure; VIX1Y at 23.16 flags lingering unease.
• The week ahead is macro light: Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the main catalyst, Thursday brings jobless claims, and Q2 earnings season opens with Delta Air Lines Friday. SK Hynix's listing and chipmaker earnings remain the wildcard.
• SPX expected move: about 45 points (0.60%) for today's expiry, 94 points (1.25%) through Friday 10 July. Moderate put skew; positioning stays cautious into FOMC minutes and earnings season.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

• Digital assets held steadier than equities overnight: Bitcoin near USD 63,140, Ethereum near USD 1,775, little changed; Solana and XRP slipped about 1.2%. Coinbase and MicroStrategy closed Thursday higher, miners fell hard.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a ten day outflow streak Thursday, though IBIT was the outlier; IBIT closed at 34.87 (+2.56%), ETHA at 12.86 (+5.50%), MicroStrategy up 7.90% to 100.77. Miners Marathon, Riot, CleanSpark and Iren fell 7 to 12%, a sharp divergence from Circle's 4.31% gain, coinciding with Revolut's August USDT delisting.

Commodities

• Gold trades softer, but remains well above USD 4,100, after posting its first weekly advance since May. The metal has been supported by expectations that the Fed will not hike rates anytime soon, amid easing inflation concerns and signs of a softening jobs market. While inflation expectations have declined alongside slumping energy prices, short-dated US bond yields still signal the risk of a rate hike later this year. A further easing in those expectations is needed to support bullion, which for now continues to consolidate.
• Brent trades steady around USD 72, weighed down by continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz and after OPEC+ backed another 180,000 barrels-a-day increase from next month. Saudi Arabia’s exports have already surged close to pre-war levels, while the UAE, which quit OPEC during the conflict, has also restored flows at a rapid pace. While banks have slashed their year-end price forecasts, hedge funds have cut their net long in Brent crude futures to near historical lows.
• Chicago oilseed and grain futures jumped on Monday, supported in part by heatwave damage to corn crops in France, one of the EU’s biggest producers. FranceAgriMer reported on Friday that crop conditions had worsened, following preliminary government estimates that extreme weather may have damaged almost a third of French corn. Traders are also monitoring hotter US temperatures and the potential impact on production.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The US bond market has re-opened following Friday’s holiday with small gains supported by the weaker June jobs report and after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations have eased, reducing urgency to hike, while reaffirming a focus on price stability.

Currencies

• FX trading was relatively quiet in early Monday trading with broad-based albeit limited USD strength seen which partly reversed the softness seen following the US jobs report on Thursday. Main mover being USDJPY which rose 0.4% to around 161.95, keeping Japanese intervention risks in focus as Goldman Sachs lifted its USDJPY target to 165 on higher-for-longer US yields and only gradual BOJ tightening.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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