Market Quick Take – 26 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rose in the US, climbed harder in Europe, and rallied across Asia as ceasefire hopes briefly cooled oil fears.
• Volatility: VIX easing, geopolitics dominant, oil-inflation link
• Digital Assets: Crypto softer, institutional demand cautious
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields firm across the curve; short-dated JGBs hit multi-decade highs on rate hike speculation
• Currencies: USDJPY on intervention watch near 160
• Commodities: Oil rise, gold slumps as war escalation and disruption risks dominate
• Macro events: Norge's Bank Rate Decision & US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Macro headlines

• The White House says peace talks with Iran are ongoing, even as it orders additional troops to the region, fuelling fears of a potential ground invasion. Tehran has rejected US overtures and instead outlined its own conditions for ending the conflict, including guarantees that the US and Israel will not resume attacks, reparations for war damages, and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2021. The goods deficit decreased, and the primary income balance turned to a $23.9 billion surplus. The services surplus and secondary income deficit slightly decreased. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.1% in Q3.
• US import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the highest since March 2022. Fuel prices increased 3.8%, with petroleum up 2.5% and natural gas jumping 24.7%. Nonfuel imports rose 1.1%. Annually, import prices saw the largest gain since February 2025.
• UK's annual inflation remained at 3% in February 2026. Clothing prices rose 0.9%, while housing and utilities increased at 4.6%. Inflation slowed for transport, food, recreation, and restaurants. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, recovering from January's fall. Core inflation increased to 3.2%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Norges Bank Rate Decision
0930 – UK BoE Deputy Governor Breeden to speak
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1300 – South Africa Reserve Bank Rate Announcement
1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year Notes
1900 – Mexico Central Bank Rate Announcement
2230 – US Fed’s Miran to speak on Fed Balance Sheet
0001 – UK Mar. GfK Consumer Confidence

Earnings this week

• Today: H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Hapag-Lloyd, Next PLC
• Friday: Carnival

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,591.90, the Dow gained 0.7% to 46,429.49, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8% to 21,929.83 as a U.S. peace proposal to Iran, lower oil, and softer Treasury yields briefly eased the market’s inflation headache. Chipmakers did much of the lifting: AMD jumped 7.3% and Intel rose 7.1% after reports of planned CPU price hikes, while Nvidia added 2.0% as investors rotated back into AI leaders. The catch, because markets enjoy keeping everyone humble, is that one Middle East headline can still move the whole tape, so traders now watch whether diplomacy turns into something sturdier than a one-day relief move.
• Europe: Europe outperformed. The STOXX 600 rose 1.4% to 586.73, the DAX gained 1.4% to 22,957.08, the CAC 40 added 1.3% to 7,846.55, and the FTSE 100 climbed 1.4% to 10,106.84 as falling oil and gas prices lifted travel, banks, and other cyclicals. Lufthansa rose 2.3% and Air France-KLM gained 2.3% as lower fuel costs improved the mood around airlines, while Santander added 2.4% with banks recovering as yields steadied and Vestas jumped 6% after fresh U.S. project orders. Europe welcomed the breather, but it still looked like a market trading the oil chart with one eye and diplomacy headlines with the other.
• Asia: Asia rallied on Wednesday before Thursday morning gave some of it back. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.9% to 53,749.62, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.6% to 5,642.21, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% to 25,335.95, and Shanghai climbed 1.3% to 3,931.84 as ceasefire hopes briefly cooled the oil panic. In Hong Kong, Meituan surged 13.9%, Alibaba gained 4.6%, and JD.com rose 4.9% after regulators and state media signaled a tougher line against destructive price wars, while Pop Mart fell 22.5% as investors worried about heavy reliance on Labubu. Early Thursday trading then turned softer after Tehran rejected the U.S. plan, so Asia’s rebound still looked more like relief than resolution.

Volatility

• Volatility is easing slightly, but remains elevated and highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. The VIX closed at 25.33 (-6.0%), with short-term measures such as VIX1D (19.08) indicating that immediate event risk has cooled somewhat. Markets continue to react to shifting signals around a potential US-Iran de-escalation, while oil prices remain elevated due to ongoing risks around the Strait of Hormuz. For investors, this matters because sustained high energy prices can keep inflation expectations elevated and delay central bank easing, even if equities stabilise.
• Options pricing suggests the SPX expected move into Friday is around 90.95 points (1.38%), signalling continued potential for larger daily swings. Looking at today’s expiry, the options chain shows no strong demand for downside protection, with a mild call-side skew around spot. In practical terms, this suggests investors are cautious but not positioning for an immediate sharp sell-off.

Digital Assets

• Crypto is softer this morning, with bitcoin around $70,076 (-1.7%) and ether near $2,121 (-2.1%), continuing to trade in line with broader risk sentiment. The asset class remains closely tied to macro developments, particularly geopolitical tensions and energy-driven inflation expectations. While earlier in the week de-escalation hopes provided support, that momentum appears to be fading.
• ETF flows remain a key gauge of institutional demand, and the latest data continues to show mixed signals. IBIT is holding up in price, but recent flow data indicated outflows, while ETHA also saw outflows despite modest price gains. This suggests that while prices are stabilising, institutional conviction remains cautious rather than returning strongly. Across altcoins, the tone is similarly soft, with XRP around $1.38 and Solana near $89, reinforcing the view that crypto is consolidating rather than trending higher.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields trade firmer across the curve as oil climbs, with persistent Middle East tensions and conflicting signals from the US and Iran weighing on risk sentiment while stoking renewed inflation concerns and broader market unease. In response, the 2-year Treasury yield is up 4 basis points at 3.92%, while the 10-year trades at 4.36%. The benchmark yield has risen by around 40 basis points since the war began, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may keep interest rates elevated in response to rising inflation pressures.
• Shorter-end Japanese government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs with 2-year yield rising 3 bps to 1.336%, its highest level since 1996; 5-year yield gained 2.5 bps to 1.74%, highest since its 2000 debut as expectations build for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike to stem inflationary pressures amid surging oil and gas prices

Commodities

• Oil rose as Washington and Tehran issued conflicting signals on efforts to end the war that has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, curbed crude output and intensified energy-crisis fears. Brent trades near USD 105, with the White House touting diplomatic progress while simultaneously deploying additional troops to the region, stoking invasion concerns. Iran, meanwhile, continues to demand full sovereign control over the waterway. Although Tehran has allowed limited tanker traffic, the Strait remains largely closed, leaving the risk of another crude spike elevated as the global market tightens further.
• Gold turned lower during the Asian session, trading near USD 4,400 after failing at key technical resistance around USD 4,600 on Wednesday, as crude oil extends gains on renewed supply risks and war concerns. The recent price action highlights how gold, during a supply-driven macro shock, has shifted into a source of liquidity—behaving more like a risk asset and moving in line with broader market stress, thereby failing to provide traditional safe-haven support. On the downside, Fibo retracement support is seen at USD 4,407 and USD 4,348, while the 200-day moving average at USD 4,108 remains the key line in the sand.

Currencies

• The US dollar trades marginally firmer as the lack of progress in ending the war, alongside conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran, continues to underpin demand. EURUSD trades at 1.1560, down from 1.1630, but remains well above the recent low near 1.1400.
• USDJPY trades near 160, a level that in recent weeks has triggered intervention concerns and sharp pullbacks. The latest bout of yen weakness is being driven by heightened uncertainty the US-Iran conflict, while shorter-dated Japanese government bond yields have climbed to multi-decade highs. This reflects growing expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike aimed at containing inflationary pressures amid surging energy prices.

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