Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Released yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly disclosure of US equity holdings—its 13F filing—offers a rare, unfiltered look at where Warren Buffett and his lieutenants moved capital last quarter. As of 30 June, the portfolio shows a blend of offence and defence: a fresh anchor in healthcare, continued pruning of outsized positions, deeper bets on housing and industry, and a war chest that now exceeds the market value of Coca-Cola.
Few portfolios are picked over like Berkshire’s. For investors, this isn’t just voyeurism—it’s a chance to see how one of the most disciplined capital allocators on the planet responds when valuations are stretched, cycles are shifting, and patience is expensive but necessary.
“Buffett’s moves don’t forecast the market; they reveal the cash flows he wants to own when the dust settles.”
The headline move was more than five million shares of UnitedHealth—worth USD 1.6 billion at quarter-end. The buy came after a year of punishment: the stock halved, guidance was pulled, and top leadership turned over amid ongoing government investigations. For Berkshire, that’s classic: take a franchise with scale, pricing power, and recurring cash flows, then buy when sentiment is broken.
But UnitedHealth was just one piece. Berkshire also quietly extended a theme that’s been building: exposure to the US real economy. That includes:
These are tangible-demand businesses tied to housing, infrastructure, and local commerce—sectors less prone to being swept up in hype cycles but capable of producing dependable cash in a slower-growth world.
Berkshire sold 20 million Apple shares, reducing its stake to 280 million—still worth USD 57 billion and still the largest holding. Bank of America was cut by 26 million shares, leaving about an 8% stake. The firm also exited T-Mobile US entirely and halved Charter Communications.
These aren’t abandonment moves; they’re portfolio hygiene—paring winners where position sizes loom large and redeploying capital into areas with more attractive forward returns.
Earlier in the year, Berkshire asked regulators for confidential treatment while it built three positions. They’re now public: Lennar, D.R. Horton, and Nucor. By Berkshire standards, they’re small—but the thematic signal is clear: housing supply, domestic manufacturing, and infrastructure demand are in focus. The secrecy likely let Berkshire build stakes without pushing prices higher.
The “Buffett effect” hit instantly. UnitedHealth rose up to 9.6% in post-market trade, Nucor gained 7%, Lennar 4%, and D.R. Horton 2.5%. But while short-term price pops make headlines, Berkshire’s real time horizon is measured in years of compounded cash flow, not days of market momentum.
For the 11th straight quarter, Berkshire was a net seller—buying USD 3.9 billion of equities but selling USD 6.9 billion. That helped push cash to a record USD 344 billion.
The message is twofold: there are pockets of value worth acting on, but few large-scale opportunities that meet Berkshire’s return hurdles. Cash, in this context, isn’t idle—it’s optionality.
“Cash is not an opinion about markets; it’s a choice to wait for better odds.”
Buffett turns 95 this month and plans to retire as CEO at year-end. Greg Abel is set to take over, with Ted Weschler and Todd Combs continuing to manage parts of the equity book. The consistency of this quarter’s moves—valuation discipline, cautious sizing, preference for durable moats—shows that Berkshire’s investment culture is built to outlast its founder.
“The most valuable asset Berkshire hands to its successors isn’t a stock list—it’s a discipline.”
Berkshire’s 13F isn’t just a list of buys and sells—it’s a window into the principles guiding one of the world’s most disciplined investors. Read between the lines, and the quarter’s moves reveal a set of enduring signals that investors can apply to their own portfolios.
Quality at a fair price over excitement at any price. UnitedHealth shows Berkshire’s bias for buying dominant franchises when sentiment is weak.
Managing concentration, not cutting conviction. Apple and Bank of America trims are risk-budget moves, not reversals.
Physical capacity as a theme. Homebuilders, steel, and local-service businesses could benefit from long-term infrastructure and housing demand, but require disciplined entry points.
For investors, the lessons are not about mimicking Buffett’s trades—they’re about understanding the thinking behind them. Some key takeaways are:
Berkshire’s quarter blended defence and offence: a bold healthcare entry, trims to a giant winner, steady builds in real-economy cash generators, and record cash for the right pitch. The tickers grab attention; the discipline behind them is the real story. For investors, that discipline—valuation, sizing, patience—is the playbook worth following.