How the US election may impact your portfolio​

Watch this video for a discussion on the 2024 US election with Peter Garnry, Head of the SaxoStrats, and host John J. Hardy. Together, they analyse potential market scenarios linked to who will be victorious in the US election in November, offering insights on investment strategies and sector impacts. This episode equips investors with knowledge to navigate the election's influence on global financial markets.

Welcome to the Saxo 2024 election hub for exclusive content about this year’s US presidential election. At Saxo we are always fascinated by how politics may affect the global financial markets.

As we get closer to this historic election day, we will continue to add podcasts, articles, and videos here. So, be sure to bookmark this page to get continued access to special insights and commentary on what will surely be an unprecedented political event- and how it could potentially affect your investing and trading decisions.

Which sectors will be affected by the election

Different sectors can see a positive impact depending on whether a Republican or Democratic candidate wins the upcoming US presidential election.​

Sectors benefitting from a Democratic presidency:

  • Clean energy
  • Infrastructure
  • Financials and semiconductors

Sectors benefitting from a Republican presidency:

  • European defence
  • US real estate
  • US small caps

Market news

US Election

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  • US Election countdown: What happens if we get Trump 2.0?

    US Election 2024

    US Election countdown: What happens if we get Trump 2.0?

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    This week we look at how the markets might react to Trump 2.0, in which Trump wins and the Republica...
  • US Election Countdown: The election's impact on Tesla

    US Election 2024

    US Election Countdown: The election's impact on Tesla

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    Just five weeks to go to the US election. This week we focus on what could be in store for Tesla pos...
  • US Election countdown: A dreaded fourth scenario

    US Election 2024

    US Election countdown: A dreaded fourth scenario

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    Six weeks to go to the US election. This week, we look at a fourth scenario for the US election we p...
  • With gold reaching new heights, silver shows potential

    US Election 2024

    With gold reaching new heights, silver shows potential

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • US Election Countdown: A very divided America

    US Election 2024

    US Election Countdown: A very divided America

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    With seven weeks to go, the election outcome is as uncertain as ever. This week, markets have both e...
  • US Votes, Asia Reacts: Investment Strategies for a Trump-Harris Showdown

    US Election 2024

    US Votes, Asia Reacts: Investment Strategies for a Trump-Harris Showdown

    Charu Chanana

    Head of FX Strategy

  • Podcast: Harris wins debate, but FOMC trumps politics for now

    US Election 2024

    Podcast: Harris wins debate, but FOMC trumps politics for now

    Saxo

    In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Saxo Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy dissect th...
  • US Election: will gold win in all scenarios?

    US Election 2024

    US Election: will gold win in all scenarios?

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Election Faceoff: Harris and Trump’s Policy Differences and How to Weather Volatility

    US Election 2024

    Election Faceoff: Harris and Trump’s Policy Differences and How to Weather Volatility

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • US Election countdown: with 8 weeks to go, an ugly market mood as the big debate looms.

    US Election 2024

    US Election countdown: with 8 weeks to go, an ugly market mood as the big debate looms.

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    The hotly anticipated presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday is the best chance fo...

How are different asset classes impacted by the US Election? 

Asset classes can be impacted by the news leading up to, and the results of, the US Election. Below are key aspects to be aware of when trading different asset classes during a US Election.

Forex (FX)
US elections could sway forex markets, with potential shifts in trade policies influencing currency strengths broadly across regions. 

Commodities
Anticipate changes in the bonds market as election outcomes may alter inflation expectations and fiscal policies, impacting yields and term premiums. 

Bonds
Election results might reshape commodity markets, with trade policies and geopolitical shifts possibly affecting global supply and demand dynamics. 

What you should know

US elections and markets

01 /

  • US Election

    Managing volatility around the US election

    Koen Hoorelbeke

    Options Strategist

  • 2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    US Election

    2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    John J. Hardy

    Head of FX Strategy

    A US president needs both houses of the Congress on his or her side to exercise real power outside o...
  • Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide and stock shortlists

    US Election

    Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide and stock shortlists

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Investors should note that the US presidential election and Congressional elections on Tuesday, Nove...
  • Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    US Election

    Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    Saxo

    This year’s US presidential election could market a dramatic shift in US policy, especially if the P...
  • How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    US Election

    How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    Saxo

    This piece explains the archaic US Electoral College system and how the winner of the US Presidentia...
  • How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    US Election

    How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    US Election

    Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • How the US election may impact your portfolio

    US Election

    How the US election may impact your portfolio

    Saxo

    In this special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, as Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equ...
  • The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    US Election

    The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    Saxo

    In November, the U.S. presidential election will engage global investors. We've created an overview ...
  • Anthony Scaramucci: Harris' well-run machine has upper hand on Trump's "testosterone-laden campaign"

    US Election

    Anthony Scaramucci: Harris' well-run machine has upper hand on Trump's "testosterone-laden campaign"

    Saxo Group

Five ways to manage risk ahead of the US Election

As with all major political or macroeconomic events, it is important to manage your investment risk in the lead up to the U.S. election. By adjusting your portfolio, you can mitigate potential risks arising from the election results. Here are five considerations on how to manage your investments as the political landscape evolves:

  • Consider how your portfolio is positioned relative to sectors and regions that may be affected by either party’s victory.
  • Use options to hedge against or speculate on election results.
  • Review how commodities may be influenced by policies and adjust if necessary.
  • Think about currencies, especially those sensitive to US policy changes and consider whether your exposure is aligned with the expected political outcome from whoever you believe will win.
  • In terms of doubt, consider diversifying your portfolio, e.g., using ETFs that focus on sectors that are more or less likely to be impacted by the election outcomes depending on your desired positioning.

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Use Saxo to position your portfolio for the election today​

This collection of articles explores the connection between US elections and the movements of the stock market, providing key insights into how the outcomes of presidential elections in the United States can affect financial markets. It explains the important role political changes play in shaping investment approaches and market trends.

By highlighting the mutual impact of government policies and economic results, the content is crafted to help investors grasp essential ideas that link stock market variations to US election cycles. These articles prepare investors to anticipate and respond to the possible effects of election outcomes on market stability and the success of their investments.

Our aim is to do more than just observe—we want to equip investors with the knowledge they need to navigate the financial markets during election periods. Understanding how investment strategies and US election results can be intertwined is crucial for anyone wanting to make well-informed decisions in a constantly changing economic environment.

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